Good Morning and welcome to Selection Sunday. I figured I'd throw my thoughts on UVa into our Selection Sunday thread and keep it all in once place ahead of the bracket release at 6pm on CBS.
BIG PICTURE: I think UVa has about a 10%-20% chance to see themselves show up in the bracket tonight. Going into the ACC Tournament, I would've put their odds at about 75%. But the bubble this year has been historically good, and also included a few bid stealers that shrank the bubble, and a few teams that came into the week in a similar position to UVa but did enough to solidify their place. If UVa was above the last four in heading into yesterday, after the NC State loss, there's a chance they get in. There were two bids stolen outright last night (ACC, PAC12), while New Mexico, who was in a similar spot to UVa, won their auto-bid and were removed from the bubble altogether. FAU's loss is a little odd but basically they were in brackets as an at-large heading into the day with 1st place USF as the auto-bid. USF has basically no chance to make it as an at-large and they lost yesterday, but because FAU lost, USF's spot is basically just taken by the Temple/UAB winner, so no change.
So let's say, sake of argument, the last four in looked like this (in order), with the AAC already considered a two-bid league, as it will be:
UVa
St. John's
Seton Hall
New Mexico
In that scenario, New Mexico played their way in, so everyone drops one spot. Seton Hall is last team in. NC State wins, everyone drops again. St. John's is the last team in, Seton Hall is out. Then Oregon wins. UVa drops to last team in. Something like this is how UVa gets in at this point. The bubble got a lot smaller, and all these teams are pretty close so someone(s) will be out. The problem is UVa very easily could have been behind, say, St. John's going into the day, and were probably more likely to be one of the last 2-3 teams in than above that.
Nothing that happens today should change anything. No more bid stealers out there. So the committee has almost surely decided whether UVa is in or out or not.
ANSWERING COMMON QUESTIONS
How can a 3rd place ACC team get left out?: It's more common than you think. In fact, it happened last year. Clemson was 3rd in the ACC, lost to #2 seed UVa in the ACC Semis and went to the NIT. They were #68 in Kenpom, the exact same as UVa is today. They had some terrible losses but better wins than UVa got this year. Also, remember all those Seth Greenberg VT teams that kept missing by a spot or two? Some of them were in the top-4 of the ACC standings. Basically, whether its right or not, conference affiliation doesn't mean much and isn't part of the selection process. The league is certainly down from where it was a few years ago, the question is how far down is it? Maybe the league is better than people are saying now, but the fact remains that UVa only played two truly elite teams in league play, once each, and lost both.
How is Clemson in over UVa? : Same explanation, really. Also seeding is overrated. UVa and Clemson were two games apart, but all those teams were neck and neck heading down the stretch. But Clemson is safely in the field in large part because of their complete body of work, including some great non-conference wins. Clemson beat Alabama (#9 NET) and UNC (#8 NET) on the road. They also beat Pitt twice, and got two more quality non-conference wins over teams in the field, Boise State (#27 NET) and TCU (#42 NET). 5 Quad-1 wins puts the Tigers safely in the field, even though most of their best work was a long time ago now, and they're probably not any better than UVa today.
How is UVa's resume better/worse than their bubble peers?: UVa doesn't have bad losses, some other teams do. UVa's strength of record, based on the job they've done, is solid and better than some teams. But UVa is also way behind most bubble teams in NET and predictive metrics like Kenpom. Also, UVa doesn't have any really, really good wins, like a lot of these other teams do. Their best are Clemson and Florida, and I guess you could throw in Texas A&M at home. But don't look too close at those, because both Florida (Zyon Pullin) and A&M (Tyrese Radford) were missing their second-leading scorer in both of those wins for UVa.
If UVa gets in, who's out at their expense?: At least a few of these fellow bubble teams would have to miss for UVa to get in, including a few that were considered safe going into yesterday:
-Providence
-Pittsburgh
-St. John's
-Seton Hall
-Oklahoma
-Texas A&M
-FAU
-Colorado
-Michigan State
-TCU
-Mississippi State
All of the teams below Texas A&M are probably 90% to make it, though they may end up in Dayton when they didn't think they would end up there. Providence and Pitt are likely behind UVa in the pecking order and out.
My Official Guess: UVa is the first or second team out of the field and head to the NIT for the second time in three years. I hope I'm wrong and there's certainly some debate, but my fear is that the committee probably "locked in" a few of the teams I listed above as at-larges with a couple spots left, and NC State and Oregon took them, at UVa and let's say St John's expense. If UVa misses it by one spot, it's unfortunate and a lot went against them, but they sort of did it to themselves. They had a chance to not only solidify their position with a win over NC State, but also would have eliminated a bid thief, which would have increased the size of the bubble by one, and also UVa would have had the opportunity to play for the auto-bid vs UNC.