NCAA TOURNAMENT
•UVa is in a better place than they were in mid-January, but a worse place than they were a few weeks ago. UVa got up as high as the 7-seed or 8-seed lines in most brackets. But three losses in four, with all three losses coming by double digits and all four games rather inefficient efforts, UVa now finds their resume slipping and their place in the bracket much more tenuous.
•Virginia’s average seed in bracketology, according to BracketMatrix, is 10.3. Joe Lunardi (ESPN) had UVa as one of the “Last Four Byes” after UNC, meaning they were a spot or two above the “Last Four In” and a trip to the First Four, but now, he has them in the First Four. Jerry Palm’s bracket, updated this morning, has UVa as a 10-seed, probably a spot or two above “Last Four In.”
•Needless to say, UVa is in on a razor’s edge with their resume. They only have three regular-season games left, while many of their bubble peers have four. That means fewer opportunities to improve the resume, but also, fewer opportunities to hurt it. UVa seems to be just on the good side of the bubble, so maybe it’s a good thing that they have less games to go, as they don’t necessarily have to play their way in at this point.
•What UVa does is most important: I think if UVa wins three games between the regular season and ACC Tournament, they’d have a good chance (though not a 100% lock) to get in. If one of their wins is at Duke, it improves their chances. A neutral court win in DC would also be useful, and I think if UVa can beat BC AND GT and lose at Duke, and then win in the ACC Quarterfinals against say, Clemson or Pitt or NC State on a neutral court, they’ve got a good shot to make the field.
•With all that said, what happens around UVa matters a lot too, and is something to keep in mind. If a lot of bubble teams play their way in over the next two weeks with signature wins, it puts more pressure on UVa and could move them down the seed list by default. If the opposite happens, UVa might be safe with just two more wins. And then UVa fans will have to worry about bid thieves in the conference tournaments (teams that were not going to make the field but take an auto-bid, sending a projected auto-bid team to an at-large spot, shrinking the bubble).
•Right now, based on how UVa is playing, what they have left on their schedule, and where they stand in metrics and bracketology, I’d give the Hoos about a 66.7% (2/3) to make the dance, though their odds of having to play in Dayton have risen considerably. If UVa wins goes 3-0 to end the regular season, I’d have them as a lock. If they went 2-1, beating BC and GT, I’d have them at about the same odds as today (depending on what happens around them) heading into the ACC Tournament, with a win there bumping their odds up to about 75%, and a loss in the first game making it 50/50 at best. If UVa goes 2-1 with wins over Duke and GT and a loss to BC, I’d have their odds at about 75%, given they’d have a signature Quad-1 road win over Duke added to the resume. If UVa goes 1-2, they’re probably less than 50% to make the tournament heading to DC, and would have to win two games to give themselves a good shot.
ACC TOURNAMENT
•With UNC’s win over Miami last night, the #1 seed in DC is officially off the table for UVa. Theoretically they could share the ACC regular-season title if they won out, UNC lost out, and Duke lost to Louisville or NC State in addition to their loss to the Hoos. I’m not even entertaining that scenario. UNC has a 90% chance to finish first at this point with a 1.5-game lead over Duke.
•Despite their recent slide, UVa still has a good chance at a top-four finish and a double bye in the ACC Tournament. Currently, UVa has a 80% at top-4, a number that has dropped considerably since their winning streak ended. If UVa wins out, they’re guaranteed a top-3 seed. If they go 2-1, they’ll have a 96% chance at top-4, and if they go 1-2 down the stretch, they still have a 62% chance to get a top-4 spot. If they lose out, they’re almost surely playing Wednesday in DC, and if they do, they have far bigger problems than ACC Tournament seeding.
•UVa is far more likely to end up 3rd or 4th (combined 63% chance) than 2nd (17% chance) at this point. Really, UVa’s only path to 2nd would include beating Duke (to get the tiebreaker there), probably winning out, and having Duke lose to UNC at home in the finale, or at NC State. Wake could also get involved in tiebreakers as they’re 10-6 and could theoretically win out. Wake has four games left: at ND, at VT, GT, Clemson; a trip to Blacksburg could be tricky, and Clemson at home should be an interesting finale for both teams.
•Here’s what UVa has already clinched: They can finish no worse than the #9 seed, so they won’t play on Tuesday in DC. UVa has a 99% chance to finish 6th or higher. The Hoos can clinch a top-6 seed with a win at BC on Wednesday, or any win in their final three games. It would be UVa’s 13th-straight year with a top-6 ACC Tournament seed.
•There are a bunch of scenarios where UVa can clinch higher than 9th without winning on Wednesday night, but there are a ton of them. There are four games tonight in the league, and there’s a decent chance UVa clinches no lower than the #8 seed by the end of the evening. (That would happen, for example, if VT lost at Syracuse and Louisville lost at Duke, among other scenarios).
•For Top 4 Tiebreakers: Wake is 10-6 to UVa’s 11-6, and then there’s a big group of teams at 9-7: Clemson, Pitt, NC State, and then Syracuse is 9-8 and FSU is 8-8. For UVa to avoid tiebreaker issues, the most-important teams to lose from that group are Pitt and then NC State. Pitt beat UVa head to head so if they end up tied at 13-7, let’s say, UVa would lose a head-to-head tiebreaker, or a three-way tie with Pitt and Wake. The good news is that a lot of these 9-7 teams play each other down the stretch, so somebody has to lose the games. The worst scenario for UVa from a tiebreaker standpoint would be Wake and Pitt winning out.
Remaining Schedules
Wake (10-6): at ND, at VT, GT, Clemson
Pitt (9-7): at Clemson, at BC, FSU, NC State
NC State (9-7): at FSU, at UNC, Duke, at Pitt
Clemson (9-7): Pitt, at ND, Syracuse, at Wake
Syracuse (9-8): VT, at Louisville, at Clemson
FSU (8-8): NC State, at GT, at Pitt, Miami