ACC Bowl Notes:
This fact slipped my mind, but there is one bowl selection rule worth noting: Any team with 2 more wins than UVa (or any other team for that matter) has to be picked before them in the selection process. A 6-6 UVa team cannot be selected for a bowl ahead of an 8-4 Wake Forest team, for example. But a 6-6 UVa team can be selected ahead of a 7-5 team, or a 7-5 UVa team can be picked ahead of an 8-4 team. More on that in our scenarios section below.
It might not matter now, but Kelly Quinlan from our Georgia Tech Rivals site said that GT won’t play in the Military Bowl against Navy, as Paul Johnson refuses to play them. If GT gets to 6 wins, look for them to land elsewhere.
Joe Giglio from the Charlotte News and Observer does a good job explaining the ACC bowl process, and had some tweets this week that I found interesting as they relate to UVa (He’s on twitter at @jwgiglio if you want to check them out for yourself). Joe said that sources have told him that UVa would be selected for the Belk Bowl over Wake Forest, if they are within one win of each other. He cited several reasons including the fact that UVa hasn’t been to a bowl in some time. Wake did themselves a big favor on Saturday though, upsetting NC State, so they might get to 8-4 and would have to be picked over UVa if they finish 6-6. Also, he mentioned that Louisville is unlikely to be selected for the Belk Bowl, as they play Kentucky in basketball at the same time on the same day, which could kill any interest in the bowl game for that fan base. The Sun Bowl immediately follows that UK/UL hoops contest I believe, so I guess they could make a play for UL to have a Cardinals doubleheader, so to speak.
Bowl Eligible (9):
Miami (10-0)
Clemson (10-1)
Notre Dame (9-2)
Virginia Tech (8-3)
Wake Forest (7-4)
NC State (7-4)
Louisville (7-4)
Boston College (6-5)
Virginia (6-5)
Boston College was the only addition this week, beating UConn to get bowl eligible. Miami, Clemson, Notre Dame, Wake Forest and Louisville also won, improving their bowl standing. Heading into the final week of the season, everyone but Virginia and potentially Louisville, will be favored to earn another win before the postseason in their respective final games. If Notre Dame beats Stanford, they should be in position to earn an New Years’ 6 bowl rather than taking up an ACC bowl slot. And if Clemson and Miami take care of business this week before their clash in the title game next week, then at least one of them, and potentially both, should be headed to the College Football Playoff.
They Should Get There (1):
Florida State (4-6)
FSU’s bowl chances come down to this weekend’s game at Florida. The Seminoles are a 5-point favorite, and if they win, they should get to 6 wins with a make-up game against UL Monroe next weekend.
Unlikely but Possible (2):
Duke (5-6)
Georgia Tech (5-5)
Duke’s win over Georgia Tech might have been a best-case scenario for UVa as far as bowl competition goes. The Jackets needed to win to get bowl eligible, but now look like they’ll be on the outside looking in, with a game against an impressive Georgia team to close out the year. Duke’s win kept their postseason hopes alive, but they’ll have to beat a hot Wake Forest team on the road if they want to get there. And even if Duke gets eligible at 6-6, a 6-6 UVa team would still probably be more desirable. That may not have been the case against a 6-5 GT team.
Not Happening (3):
Pittsburgh (4-7)
Syracuse (4-7)
UNC (1-8)
Pitt and Syracuse lost on the road this week, and won’t be bowling. They’ll wrap up their seasons on Saturday, as will UNC.
(Keep in mind that when I say ‘ACC’ in a bowl-tie in, that includes Notre Dame)
Category 1: Playoff/New Year's Six
Process: This one is easy. If an ACC team is selected to the playoff, then that’s where they’re headed. The only teams from the ACC that are still contending for the playoff are Clemson and Miami, and they will play each other in Charlotte on 12/2. If both teams take care of business before then, that game probably determines a spot in the CFP. The loser would likely be headed to the Orange Bowl, with an outside shot at the playoff. If the ACC title game winner isn’t selected for the playoff, then they’re headed to the Orange Bowl.
What is good for UVa?: Clemson and Miami both making the playoff would be good for UVa, as it moves everyone up a slot in the bowl pecking order. The same goes for a Notre Dame win over Stanford in their regular-season finale, as it would likely send Notre Dame to a New Years 6 game. If two ACC teams make the CFP then the next highest-ranked ACC team (potentially 9-3 VT if they win at UVa this week) would go to the Orange Bowl, and then everyone moves up another slot.
College Football Playoff
Capital One Orange Bowl
ACC vs B1G/SEC
Saturday, December 30th, 8:00pm
Hard Rock Stadium, Miami, FL
Category 2: Top Bowl Selections
Process: Though unlikely, it is worth noting than an ACC team could get selected for the Peach Bowl, Fiesta Bowl or Cotton Bowl as an at-large. This could be in play for a 9-3 Virginia Tech, if other at large teams are not as desirable. I wouldn’t bet on it though, and keep in mind that Notre Dame is still out there too. Assuming that doesn’t happen, there is one automatic ACC tie in (Camping World, formerly the Russell Athletic Bowl) and another potential tie-in (Citrus). If the ACC team in the Orange Bowl plays a B1G opponent (possible, no way to tell though), then the ACC gets a spot in the Citrus Bowl against the B1G.
What is good for UVa?: A B1G team in the Orange Bowl against an ACC team would be good for UVa, as it opens up another ACC slot in the Citrus Bowl.
Camping World Bowl
ACC vs Big 12
Thursday, December 28th, 5:15pm
Camping World Stadium, Orlando, FL
Citrus Bowl
ACC vs SEC
Monday, January 1st, 1pm
Camping World Stadium, Orlando, FL
Category 3: Tier I Bowls (In Chronological Order)
Process: Now we’re in UVa territory. These are the “best” bowl games the ACC has for selection, after the playoff, Orange Bowl and the top-tier Florida bowls listed above. There is no selection order with these bowls. They can choose from a pool of ACC teams, and work it out amongst themselves as to who goes where. Obviously, some programs and teams are more attractive than others. Teams like Virginia Tech and NC State travel well, and then you have other factors that make teams more attractive to bowls and TV, like Lamar Jackson at Louisville. The ACC will either have a slot in the Music City Bowl or the TaxSlayer Bowl (formerly the Gator Bowl), but we won’t know that until bowl selection time (it’s up to the bowls.) The TaxSlayer Bowl is the more likely destination for an ACC team than Nashville, based on the contract the bowls have in place, and the selections that have been made in recent weeks.
What is good for UVa?: A win against Virginia Tech would likely move UVa into this group of bowl games, if Clemson, Miami and Notre Dame keep winning and take the top tier bowl slots. Also as I mentioned above, any team that’s two wins ahead of UVa has to be selected for a bowl before the Hoos. If UVa drops to 6-6, then Virginia Tech, and probably, NC State, Wake and Louisville, would have to be picked before Virginia if they get to 8-4 (all 3 are favorites this week).
New Era Pinstripe Bowl
ACC vs B1G
Wednesday, December 27th, 5:15pm
Yankee Stadium, Bronx, NY
Belk Bowl
ACC vs SEC
Friday, December 29th, 1pm
Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, NC
Hyundai Sun Bowl
ACC vs PAC 12
Friday, December 29th, 3pm
Sun Bowl Stadium, El Paso, TX
Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl
ACC/B1G vs SEC
Friday, December 29th, 4:30pm
Nissan Stadium, Nashville, TN
OR
TaxSlayer Bowl
ACC/B1G vs SEC
Saturday, December 30th, Noon
EverBank Field, Jacksonville, FL
Category 4: Tier II Bowls (In Chronological Order)
Process: These are the final selections for the ACC. If the ACC has more teams than they have slots, then there’s a few other bowls they can end up in (Like the Birmingham Bowl, for example). Unlike the Tier I bowls, there is a clear selection process for these final 3 games. The Military Bowl gets first pick, then the Independence Bowl, then the Quick Lane Bowl picks last.
What is good for UVa?: A win over Virginia Tech would probably be enough to ensure UVa avoids Detroit or Shreveport. Win or lose, the Military Bowl looks like the most likely-scenario for UVa. Given the proximity to Charlottesville, the Military Bowl would probably be very happy to get the Hoos to Annapolis regardless of what happens this weekend.
Quick Lane Bowl
ACC vs B1G
Tuesday, December 26th, 5:15 pm
Ford Field, Detroit, MI
Walk On’s Independence Bowl
ACC vs SEC
Wednesday, December 27th, 1:30pm
Independence Stadium, Shreveport, LA
Military Bowl
ACC vs AAC
Thursday, December 28th, 1:30pm
Navy-Marine Corps Stadium, Annapolis, MD
Bowl Projections
Projected bowl eligible teams (10): Clemson, Miami, Notre Dame, VT, NC State, UVa, BC, Louisville, Wake, Florida State
Scenario 1: UVa beats VT, 1 team goes to the CFP, ACC gets Citrus
CFP: Clemson (12-1)
Orange: Miami (11-1)
Citrus Bowl: Virginia Tech (8-4)
Camping World: NC State (8-4)
Belk: Virginia (7-5)
Music City/TaxSlayer: Louisville (8-4)
Pinstripe: Boston College (7-5)
Sun: Wake Forest (8-4)
Military: Florida State (6-6)
Independence:
Quick Lane:
This would be a pretty good scenario for UVa probably. Beating VT would allow Virginia to be selected before or with the 8-4 teams, where a loss would lock them out of selection for those games. If it’s true that the Belk Bowl would take UVa over Wake Forest regardless of record, then they could slot into the Belk Bowl at 7-5. In this scenario, FSU goes to Annapolis, and the two final bowls hope Georgia Tech upsets UGa, or potentially take a 5-7 Duke team.
Scenario 2: UVa loses to VT, 2 teams go to the CFP, no Citrus slot
CFP: Clemson (12-1), Miami (11-1)
Orange: Virginia Tech (9-3)
Camping World: NC State (8-4)
Belk: Wake Forest (8-4)
Music City/TaxSlayer: Louisville (8-4)
Pinstripe: Boston College (7-5)
Sun: Florida State (6-6)
Military: Virginia (6-6)
Independence:
Quick Lane:
In this scenario, Wake, Louisville and NC State are all required to be picked before UVa. The Hoos could get selected by the Sun Bowl over 6-6 FSU, but really that’s tough to predict at this point. If this scenario played out, UVa likely heads to Annapolis.
Scenario 2: UVa loses to VT, 1 CFP playoff team, no Citrus slot
CFP: Miami (12-0)
Orange: Clemson (11-2)
Camping World: Virginia Tech (9-3)
Belk: Wake Forest (8-4)
Music City/TaxSlayer: NC State (8-4)
Pinstripe: Boston College (7-5)
Sun: Louisville (8-4)
Military: Virginia (6-6)
Independence: Florida State (6-6)
Quick Lane:
This could be the scenario that sends UVa to Shreveport or Detroit. If the Military took FSU over UVa, that’s what would happen. Still, even if a Citrus Bowl slot opens up or something that would benefit UVa, they still would miss Detroit or Shreveport. At this point, I think UVa would be the pick over FSU for the Military based on local interest, and the fact that UVa’s 6-6 is a good story while FSU has had a really disappointing season. But I could see it going either way I suppose.
This fact slipped my mind, but there is one bowl selection rule worth noting: Any team with 2 more wins than UVa (or any other team for that matter) has to be picked before them in the selection process. A 6-6 UVa team cannot be selected for a bowl ahead of an 8-4 Wake Forest team, for example. But a 6-6 UVa team can be selected ahead of a 7-5 team, or a 7-5 UVa team can be picked ahead of an 8-4 team. More on that in our scenarios section below.
It might not matter now, but Kelly Quinlan from our Georgia Tech Rivals site said that GT won’t play in the Military Bowl against Navy, as Paul Johnson refuses to play them. If GT gets to 6 wins, look for them to land elsewhere.
Joe Giglio from the Charlotte News and Observer does a good job explaining the ACC bowl process, and had some tweets this week that I found interesting as they relate to UVa (He’s on twitter at @jwgiglio if you want to check them out for yourself). Joe said that sources have told him that UVa would be selected for the Belk Bowl over Wake Forest, if they are within one win of each other. He cited several reasons including the fact that UVa hasn’t been to a bowl in some time. Wake did themselves a big favor on Saturday though, upsetting NC State, so they might get to 8-4 and would have to be picked over UVa if they finish 6-6. Also, he mentioned that Louisville is unlikely to be selected for the Belk Bowl, as they play Kentucky in basketball at the same time on the same day, which could kill any interest in the bowl game for that fan base. The Sun Bowl immediately follows that UK/UL hoops contest I believe, so I guess they could make a play for UL to have a Cardinals doubleheader, so to speak.
Bowl Eligible (9):
Miami (10-0)
Clemson (10-1)
Notre Dame (9-2)
Virginia Tech (8-3)
Wake Forest (7-4)
NC State (7-4)
Louisville (7-4)
Boston College (6-5)
Virginia (6-5)
Boston College was the only addition this week, beating UConn to get bowl eligible. Miami, Clemson, Notre Dame, Wake Forest and Louisville also won, improving their bowl standing. Heading into the final week of the season, everyone but Virginia and potentially Louisville, will be favored to earn another win before the postseason in their respective final games. If Notre Dame beats Stanford, they should be in position to earn an New Years’ 6 bowl rather than taking up an ACC bowl slot. And if Clemson and Miami take care of business this week before their clash in the title game next week, then at least one of them, and potentially both, should be headed to the College Football Playoff.
They Should Get There (1):
Florida State (4-6)
FSU’s bowl chances come down to this weekend’s game at Florida. The Seminoles are a 5-point favorite, and if they win, they should get to 6 wins with a make-up game against UL Monroe next weekend.
Unlikely but Possible (2):
Duke (5-6)
Georgia Tech (5-5)
Duke’s win over Georgia Tech might have been a best-case scenario for UVa as far as bowl competition goes. The Jackets needed to win to get bowl eligible, but now look like they’ll be on the outside looking in, with a game against an impressive Georgia team to close out the year. Duke’s win kept their postseason hopes alive, but they’ll have to beat a hot Wake Forest team on the road if they want to get there. And even if Duke gets eligible at 6-6, a 6-6 UVa team would still probably be more desirable. That may not have been the case against a 6-5 GT team.
Not Happening (3):
Pittsburgh (4-7)
Syracuse (4-7)
UNC (1-8)
Pitt and Syracuse lost on the road this week, and won’t be bowling. They’ll wrap up their seasons on Saturday, as will UNC.
(Keep in mind that when I say ‘ACC’ in a bowl-tie in, that includes Notre Dame)
Category 1: Playoff/New Year's Six
Process: This one is easy. If an ACC team is selected to the playoff, then that’s where they’re headed. The only teams from the ACC that are still contending for the playoff are Clemson and Miami, and they will play each other in Charlotte on 12/2. If both teams take care of business before then, that game probably determines a spot in the CFP. The loser would likely be headed to the Orange Bowl, with an outside shot at the playoff. If the ACC title game winner isn’t selected for the playoff, then they’re headed to the Orange Bowl.
What is good for UVa?: Clemson and Miami both making the playoff would be good for UVa, as it moves everyone up a slot in the bowl pecking order. The same goes for a Notre Dame win over Stanford in their regular-season finale, as it would likely send Notre Dame to a New Years 6 game. If two ACC teams make the CFP then the next highest-ranked ACC team (potentially 9-3 VT if they win at UVa this week) would go to the Orange Bowl, and then everyone moves up another slot.
College Football Playoff
Capital One Orange Bowl
ACC vs B1G/SEC
Saturday, December 30th, 8:00pm
Hard Rock Stadium, Miami, FL
Category 2: Top Bowl Selections
Process: Though unlikely, it is worth noting than an ACC team could get selected for the Peach Bowl, Fiesta Bowl or Cotton Bowl as an at-large. This could be in play for a 9-3 Virginia Tech, if other at large teams are not as desirable. I wouldn’t bet on it though, and keep in mind that Notre Dame is still out there too. Assuming that doesn’t happen, there is one automatic ACC tie in (Camping World, formerly the Russell Athletic Bowl) and another potential tie-in (Citrus). If the ACC team in the Orange Bowl plays a B1G opponent (possible, no way to tell though), then the ACC gets a spot in the Citrus Bowl against the B1G.
What is good for UVa?: A B1G team in the Orange Bowl against an ACC team would be good for UVa, as it opens up another ACC slot in the Citrus Bowl.
Camping World Bowl
ACC vs Big 12
Thursday, December 28th, 5:15pm
Camping World Stadium, Orlando, FL
Citrus Bowl
ACC vs SEC
Monday, January 1st, 1pm
Camping World Stadium, Orlando, FL
Category 3: Tier I Bowls (In Chronological Order)
Process: Now we’re in UVa territory. These are the “best” bowl games the ACC has for selection, after the playoff, Orange Bowl and the top-tier Florida bowls listed above. There is no selection order with these bowls. They can choose from a pool of ACC teams, and work it out amongst themselves as to who goes where. Obviously, some programs and teams are more attractive than others. Teams like Virginia Tech and NC State travel well, and then you have other factors that make teams more attractive to bowls and TV, like Lamar Jackson at Louisville. The ACC will either have a slot in the Music City Bowl or the TaxSlayer Bowl (formerly the Gator Bowl), but we won’t know that until bowl selection time (it’s up to the bowls.) The TaxSlayer Bowl is the more likely destination for an ACC team than Nashville, based on the contract the bowls have in place, and the selections that have been made in recent weeks.
What is good for UVa?: A win against Virginia Tech would likely move UVa into this group of bowl games, if Clemson, Miami and Notre Dame keep winning and take the top tier bowl slots. Also as I mentioned above, any team that’s two wins ahead of UVa has to be selected for a bowl before the Hoos. If UVa drops to 6-6, then Virginia Tech, and probably, NC State, Wake and Louisville, would have to be picked before Virginia if they get to 8-4 (all 3 are favorites this week).
New Era Pinstripe Bowl
ACC vs B1G
Wednesday, December 27th, 5:15pm
Yankee Stadium, Bronx, NY
Belk Bowl
ACC vs SEC
Friday, December 29th, 1pm
Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, NC
Hyundai Sun Bowl
ACC vs PAC 12
Friday, December 29th, 3pm
Sun Bowl Stadium, El Paso, TX
Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl
ACC/B1G vs SEC
Friday, December 29th, 4:30pm
Nissan Stadium, Nashville, TN
OR
TaxSlayer Bowl
ACC/B1G vs SEC
Saturday, December 30th, Noon
EverBank Field, Jacksonville, FL
Category 4: Tier II Bowls (In Chronological Order)
Process: These are the final selections for the ACC. If the ACC has more teams than they have slots, then there’s a few other bowls they can end up in (Like the Birmingham Bowl, for example). Unlike the Tier I bowls, there is a clear selection process for these final 3 games. The Military Bowl gets first pick, then the Independence Bowl, then the Quick Lane Bowl picks last.
What is good for UVa?: A win over Virginia Tech would probably be enough to ensure UVa avoids Detroit or Shreveport. Win or lose, the Military Bowl looks like the most likely-scenario for UVa. Given the proximity to Charlottesville, the Military Bowl would probably be very happy to get the Hoos to Annapolis regardless of what happens this weekend.
Quick Lane Bowl
ACC vs B1G
Tuesday, December 26th, 5:15 pm
Ford Field, Detroit, MI
Walk On’s Independence Bowl
ACC vs SEC
Wednesday, December 27th, 1:30pm
Independence Stadium, Shreveport, LA
Military Bowl
ACC vs AAC
Thursday, December 28th, 1:30pm
Navy-Marine Corps Stadium, Annapolis, MD
Bowl Projections
Projected bowl eligible teams (10): Clemson, Miami, Notre Dame, VT, NC State, UVa, BC, Louisville, Wake, Florida State
Scenario 1: UVa beats VT, 1 team goes to the CFP, ACC gets Citrus
CFP: Clemson (12-1)
Orange: Miami (11-1)
Citrus Bowl: Virginia Tech (8-4)
Camping World: NC State (8-4)
Belk: Virginia (7-5)
Music City/TaxSlayer: Louisville (8-4)
Pinstripe: Boston College (7-5)
Sun: Wake Forest (8-4)
Military: Florida State (6-6)
Independence:
Quick Lane:
This would be a pretty good scenario for UVa probably. Beating VT would allow Virginia to be selected before or with the 8-4 teams, where a loss would lock them out of selection for those games. If it’s true that the Belk Bowl would take UVa over Wake Forest regardless of record, then they could slot into the Belk Bowl at 7-5. In this scenario, FSU goes to Annapolis, and the two final bowls hope Georgia Tech upsets UGa, or potentially take a 5-7 Duke team.
Scenario 2: UVa loses to VT, 2 teams go to the CFP, no Citrus slot
CFP: Clemson (12-1), Miami (11-1)
Orange: Virginia Tech (9-3)
Camping World: NC State (8-4)
Belk: Wake Forest (8-4)
Music City/TaxSlayer: Louisville (8-4)
Pinstripe: Boston College (7-5)
Sun: Florida State (6-6)
Military: Virginia (6-6)
Independence:
Quick Lane:
In this scenario, Wake, Louisville and NC State are all required to be picked before UVa. The Hoos could get selected by the Sun Bowl over 6-6 FSU, but really that’s tough to predict at this point. If this scenario played out, UVa likely heads to Annapolis.
Scenario 2: UVa loses to VT, 1 CFP playoff team, no Citrus slot
CFP: Miami (12-0)
Orange: Clemson (11-2)
Camping World: Virginia Tech (9-3)
Belk: Wake Forest (8-4)
Music City/TaxSlayer: NC State (8-4)
Pinstripe: Boston College (7-5)
Sun: Louisville (8-4)
Military: Virginia (6-6)
Independence: Florida State (6-6)
Quick Lane:
This could be the scenario that sends UVa to Shreveport or Detroit. If the Military took FSU over UVa, that’s what would happen. Still, even if a Citrus Bowl slot opens up or something that would benefit UVa, they still would miss Detroit or Shreveport. At this point, I think UVa would be the pick over FSU for the Military based on local interest, and the fact that UVa’s 6-6 is a good story while FSU has had a really disappointing season. But I could see it going either way I suppose.
