After another week of ACC play, here's an update on the regular season title race, and potential ACC Tournament seeding:
Race for the Double Bye:
1. North Carolina (12-3): @UVa, Syracuse, @Duke
2. Miami (11-4): Louisville, @ND, @VT
3. Duke (10-5): @Pitt, Wake, UNC
4. Virginia (10-5): UNC, at Clemson, Louisville
5. ND (10-5): at FSU, Miami, NC State
Louisville at Miami (Today): Root for Louisville. The Cards don't factor into the postseason, and Miami is a game up on UVa at the moment.
Notre Dame at FSU (Today): Root for FSU. UVa and ND are tied in the standings, and even though UVa has the tiebreaker over the Irish, another ND loss would be good insurance for the Hoos should they lose another game.
Duke at Pittsburgh (Sunday): Root for Pitt. Duke holds the tiebreaker over UVa, and a loss to Pitt could help the Hoos stay in front of Duke down the stretch and into the ACC Tourney.
Syracuse at UNC (Monday): Root for Syracuse. This one is pretty straightforward. Win or lose tonight, UNC wins do no good for UVa at this point.
Miami at ND (Wednesday): Root for Notre Dame. UVa holds the tiebreaker over the Irish, and it would be more beneficial to have the Canes lose than the Irish at this point.
UNC at Duke (March 5): TBD. After tonight, we'll know more about which team winning would benefit UVa more. If UVa beats UNC and the Heels beat Syracuse, then a Duke win probably helps UVa more, especially if Duke loses to Pittsburgh. But if UVa loses to UNC tonight and cannot catch them, then they'll probably rather have Duke lose for tiebreaker purposes.
How the rest of the league looks:
Race for the Double Bye:
1. North Carolina (12-3): @UVa, Syracuse, @Duke
2. Miami (11-4): Louisville, @ND, @VT
3. Duke (10-5): @Pitt, Wake, UNC
4. Virginia (10-5): UNC, at Clemson, Louisville
5. ND (10-5): at FSU, Miami, NC State
- With a loss on Saturday, UVa will be eliminated from the regular season title race. UNC would need just one more win to clinch the #1 seed in DC, since Louisville won't be there. (The Tar Heels have the H2H tiebreaker over Miami)
- With Clemson's mid-week loss to Georgia Tech, the race for the four double bye spots in the ACC Tournament come down to five teams: UNC, Miami, Duke, UVa and ND.
- UVa holds the H2H tiebreaker over ND, and with a win over UNC and Louisville, would hold those tiebreakers as well. UVa and Miami split their two games 1-1 so no H2H tiebreaker there, and Duke holds the H2H tiebreaker over UVa.
- UVa still holds an outside shot at the #1 seed in DC, but will need to win out and get help. UNC will have to lose again, with a loss to Syracuse and win over Duke being a scenario that would benefit UVa the most. Miami would also need to lose at least one more time, with a loss to VT or Louisville being more beneficial to UVa than a loss to double-bye competitor ND.
- A 3-0 record for UVa would deliver them a double-bye in the ACC Tournament. Anything worse than that, and it gets tricky. UVa could end up with a double bye at 12-6 in league play, but 11-7 or worse will probably lead to UVa playing on Wednesday in DC.
Louisville at Miami (Today): Root for Louisville. The Cards don't factor into the postseason, and Miami is a game up on UVa at the moment.
Notre Dame at FSU (Today): Root for FSU. UVa and ND are tied in the standings, and even though UVa has the tiebreaker over the Irish, another ND loss would be good insurance for the Hoos should they lose another game.
Duke at Pittsburgh (Sunday): Root for Pitt. Duke holds the tiebreaker over UVa, and a loss to Pitt could help the Hoos stay in front of Duke down the stretch and into the ACC Tourney.
Syracuse at UNC (Monday): Root for Syracuse. This one is pretty straightforward. Win or lose tonight, UNC wins do no good for UVa at this point.
Miami at ND (Wednesday): Root for Notre Dame. UVa holds the tiebreaker over the Irish, and it would be more beneficial to have the Canes lose than the Irish at this point.
UNC at Duke (March 5): TBD. After tonight, we'll know more about which team winning would benefit UVa more. If UVa beats UNC and the Heels beat Syracuse, then a Duke win probably helps UVa more, especially if Duke loses to Pittsburgh. But if UVa loses to UNC tonight and cannot catch them, then they'll probably rather have Duke lose for tiebreaker purposes.
How the rest of the league looks:
- Boston College will be the 14 seed in the ACC Tournament, and with three more losses will finish 0-18 in league play. Ouch. They'll probably be joined on Tuesday in DC by Wake Forest (2-13), NC State (4-11) and either FSU (6-10) or Georgia Tech (6-9).
- If Virginia Tech can get one more win, they'll likely land in the 8/9 game, and will probably face either Pittsburgh or Syracuse. There is an outside chance that Clemson could fall to the 8/9 game, but they're more likely to end up 6th or 7th.
- This year, the 5th seed is the spot to avoid. It's usually a tough spot regardless, but with the balanced depth at the top of the standings, the path to an ACC title would be really tough for that team. If things stay as they are now, the 5th seed would be Virginia, based on tiebreakers. If the standings held to form, the Hoos would have to beat either NC State or Wake Forest on Wednesday, turn around and play Notre Dame on Thursday, then likely play UNC Friday in the semifinals. And that's just to reach the title game. That would be a very tough road, so the extra rest that comes with a double bye will be huge for those four teams. And since there are five solid teams at the top of the standings, getting the 4 seed and having to play the 5 seed wouldn't really be that beneficial either. Just ask Louisville, who had to open up ACC play last year by facing #5-seed UNC. A top 3 finish would put UVa in the best position to cut down the nets in DC next month.
