This is something I'll try to update as we move closer to the end of the regular season. With most teams in the league having four games left, we're getting a clearer picture to what the ACC standings and conference tournament could look like in two weeks time. Right now, the following teams are legitimate contenders for the ACC Regular Season title, and double byes in DC*:
(*Louisville is not a factor for the ACC Tournament, but could still win the regular season title)
Standings & Remaining schedule:
1. North Carolina (11-3): @NC State, @UVa, Syracuse, @Duke
2. Virginia (10-4): @Miami, UNC, @Clemson, Louisville
3. Miami (10-4): Virginia, Louisville, @ND, @VT
4. Louisville (10-4): @Pitt, @Miami, Georgia Tech, @UVa
5. Notre Dame (9-5): @Wake, @FSU, Miami, NC State
6. Duke (9-5): FSU, @Pitt, Wake, UNC
For now, we'll leave Clemson (9-6), Pittsburgh (8-6), and Syracuse (8-7) out of the discussion. But they could still sneak into the top 4 if other teams lose, particularly Clemson.
UVa tiebreakers:
UVa has clinched a head-to-head tiebreaker over Notre Dame. With wins over Miami, Louisville, and UNC, they will clinch tiebreakers over those teams as well. At worst, UVa will split the head-to-head tiebreakers with Louisville and Miami, as they've already beaten them once. UVa loses a head-to-head tiebreaker with Duke.
Path to the Regular Season Title:
The easiest path for UVa to win their third straight regular season title, or at least a share of it, is to win out. If UVa finishes 14-4 in the ACC, they will be the #1 seed in the ACC Tournament, and at worst will share the regular season title with North Carolina. If the Heels were to drop one more game, UVa would win the title outright at 14-4. If UVa loses a game, or more, the path to the regular season title becomes much trickier. If that loss is to UNC, then it would be almost impossible for UVa to win the regular season title. Carolina would need to drop two more games and UVa would have to win out just for the two teams to tie, and Carolina would still win the head-to-head tiebreaker and get the #1 seed in DC. The most important game for UVa, after this weekend's results, is Saturdays matchup with North Carolina.
Rooting Interests in Upcoming Games:
When one of the teams listed below is playing a team further down the league standings that's not listed above, root for that team. Simple as that. So if NC State beats UNC at home this week, that's good for UVa, and every other team at the top of the standings, really. Both Pitt and FSU have a chance to do some damage over the next two weeks. Pitt hosts both Duke and Louisville, and FSU has games with Notre Dame and Duke.
Louisville at Miami (Saturday): Root for Louisville. Louisville won't be in DC, so them beating Miami will help UVa with seeding in the ACC Tournament. Louisville did UVa a big favor on Saturday, by beating Duke at home. That result was bigger than UNC beating Miami, as Duke holds the tiebreaker over UVa.
Miami at Notre Dame (Next Week): Root for Notre Dame (probably). Notre Dame has five league losses, so them beating Miami would ensure Miami has at least five league losses of their own. That means even if UVa loses to Miami on Monday, the Irish could ensure that the Hoos and Canes are tied in the standings heading into UVa's clash with UNC. If UVa beats Miami, then this game isn't as important, as both teams will already have five league losses, and UVa will hold the tiebreaker over both. But if UVa beats Miami and the Canes follow that with a loss to Notre Dame, that would make it much less likely that Miami would finish above UVa in the standings, especially if UVa beats UNC.
UNC at Duke (March 5): TBD. It's too early to tell which team winning would benefit UVa more at this point. If Duke has a chance to tie UVa with a win in that game, then UVa fans should definitely root for UNC.
Path to a Double Bye in the ACCT:
Losses by Duke and Notre Dame on Saturday make UVa's path to a double-bye easier. With Louisville out of the mix, there are five teams for four double-bye spots, with 9-6 Clemson lurking. Here's how different UVa finishes would impact their chances to finish top four in the league and have the chance to rest until the tournament's Quarterfinals:
4-0: Lock. UVa would be the #1 seed in DC.
3-1: Lock. 3-1 means UVa would've beaten at least one of UL or UM, giving them at least 5 losses.
2-2: Pretty likely. A 12-6 finish would probably be enough for a double-bye because of tiebreakers, but they probably wouldn't be better than 3rd place, barring upsets.
1-3: Unlikely, depending on who they beat.
0-4: If UVa finishes 0-4, they have bigger problems than the double-bye in the ACC Tournament.
Summary: Winning out delivers UVa the ACC Regular Season title, the #1 seed in DC, and a good shot at a #1 seed in the NCAA Tournament depending on how the Hoos do in the conference tournament. A 3-1 finish gets them a double-bye, and an outside shot at the #1 seed in DC, if the loss isn't to UNC. 2-2 or worse, and UVa will be looking for help from other teams.
(*Louisville is not a factor for the ACC Tournament, but could still win the regular season title)
Standings & Remaining schedule:
1. North Carolina (11-3): @NC State, @UVa, Syracuse, @Duke
2. Virginia (10-4): @Miami, UNC, @Clemson, Louisville
3. Miami (10-4): Virginia, Louisville, @ND, @VT
4. Louisville (10-4): @Pitt, @Miami, Georgia Tech, @UVa
5. Notre Dame (9-5): @Wake, @FSU, Miami, NC State
6. Duke (9-5): FSU, @Pitt, Wake, UNC
For now, we'll leave Clemson (9-6), Pittsburgh (8-6), and Syracuse (8-7) out of the discussion. But they could still sneak into the top 4 if other teams lose, particularly Clemson.
UVa tiebreakers:
UVa has clinched a head-to-head tiebreaker over Notre Dame. With wins over Miami, Louisville, and UNC, they will clinch tiebreakers over those teams as well. At worst, UVa will split the head-to-head tiebreakers with Louisville and Miami, as they've already beaten them once. UVa loses a head-to-head tiebreaker with Duke.
Path to the Regular Season Title:
The easiest path for UVa to win their third straight regular season title, or at least a share of it, is to win out. If UVa finishes 14-4 in the ACC, they will be the #1 seed in the ACC Tournament, and at worst will share the regular season title with North Carolina. If the Heels were to drop one more game, UVa would win the title outright at 14-4. If UVa loses a game, or more, the path to the regular season title becomes much trickier. If that loss is to UNC, then it would be almost impossible for UVa to win the regular season title. Carolina would need to drop two more games and UVa would have to win out just for the two teams to tie, and Carolina would still win the head-to-head tiebreaker and get the #1 seed in DC. The most important game for UVa, after this weekend's results, is Saturdays matchup with North Carolina.
Rooting Interests in Upcoming Games:
When one of the teams listed below is playing a team further down the league standings that's not listed above, root for that team. Simple as that. So if NC State beats UNC at home this week, that's good for UVa, and every other team at the top of the standings, really. Both Pitt and FSU have a chance to do some damage over the next two weeks. Pitt hosts both Duke and Louisville, and FSU has games with Notre Dame and Duke.
Louisville at Miami (Saturday): Root for Louisville. Louisville won't be in DC, so them beating Miami will help UVa with seeding in the ACC Tournament. Louisville did UVa a big favor on Saturday, by beating Duke at home. That result was bigger than UNC beating Miami, as Duke holds the tiebreaker over UVa.
Miami at Notre Dame (Next Week): Root for Notre Dame (probably). Notre Dame has five league losses, so them beating Miami would ensure Miami has at least five league losses of their own. That means even if UVa loses to Miami on Monday, the Irish could ensure that the Hoos and Canes are tied in the standings heading into UVa's clash with UNC. If UVa beats Miami, then this game isn't as important, as both teams will already have five league losses, and UVa will hold the tiebreaker over both. But if UVa beats Miami and the Canes follow that with a loss to Notre Dame, that would make it much less likely that Miami would finish above UVa in the standings, especially if UVa beats UNC.
UNC at Duke (March 5): TBD. It's too early to tell which team winning would benefit UVa more at this point. If Duke has a chance to tie UVa with a win in that game, then UVa fans should definitely root for UNC.
Path to a Double Bye in the ACCT:
Losses by Duke and Notre Dame on Saturday make UVa's path to a double-bye easier. With Louisville out of the mix, there are five teams for four double-bye spots, with 9-6 Clemson lurking. Here's how different UVa finishes would impact their chances to finish top four in the league and have the chance to rest until the tournament's Quarterfinals:
4-0: Lock. UVa would be the #1 seed in DC.
3-1: Lock. 3-1 means UVa would've beaten at least one of UL or UM, giving them at least 5 losses.
2-2: Pretty likely. A 12-6 finish would probably be enough for a double-bye because of tiebreakers, but they probably wouldn't be better than 3rd place, barring upsets.
1-3: Unlikely, depending on who they beat.
0-4: If UVa finishes 0-4, they have bigger problems than the double-bye in the ACC Tournament.
Summary: Winning out delivers UVa the ACC Regular Season title, the #1 seed in DC, and a good shot at a #1 seed in the NCAA Tournament depending on how the Hoos do in the conference tournament. A 3-1 finish gets them a double-bye, and an outside shot at the #1 seed in DC, if the loss isn't to UNC. 2-2 or worse, and UVa will be looking for help from other teams.
