We continue looking at where the different basketball programs currently stand in the ACC from bottom to top with predictions of places 7 through 4. Where will the Hoos come in on the predictions?
7. VA Tech (last season 3-way tie for 7th place, 10 – 8 conference, 22 – 11 overall)
The Hokies return all 5 starters and 71% of their minutes played but lose their two best players. “What?” you say. Yes, Coach Buzz Williams brought Zack LeDay and Seth Allen, his two best players and leading scorers, off the bench. So with Tech returning the 2nd most minutes in the ACC, why am I not picking them to improve on their 7th place finish? The answer is that what has made the Hokies difficult to play has also made them vulnerable. Looking at the Choksters’ lineups these days, one has to wonder if Buzz Williams is trying to revolutionize the college game by doing away with big men and going with a 5-guard lineup. The truth is that Williams has been unable to recruit any ACC-level big men to replace his best player, Zach LeDay. Instead, he continues to load up on guards, bringing in guard N. Alexander-Walker (Rivals #29) and guard Wabissa Bede (Rivals #66). LeDay, however, was the player that allowed the 4-guard lineup to work with his ability to score inside and out, his rebounding, and his defense. The Hokies don’t appear to have anyone to fill his shoes. Big man Kerry Blackshear returns from missing the entire season because of injury after showing flashes of promise his freshman season. Khadim Sy started last season but played only 11.4 minutes per game, scoring 4.0 ppg. Neither player appears to have the ability to replace what LeDay brought to the Hokies. Oft’injured wing Chris Clarke brings some toughness and rebounding to the interior but is neither tall enough nor a good enough defender to stop the taller big men in the ACC, nor is he a good shooter in the half court.
The Gobblers won’t miss guard Seth Allen as much as LeDay because they return a busload of capable guards. Justin Robinson, Justin Bibbs, and Ahmed Hill are back as well as wings Clarke and Ty Outlaw. The Turkeys redshirted guard Tyrie Jackson, so with the addition of the 2 freshmen guards, VPI will have 8 guards/wings vying for playing time.
You have to give coach Buzz Williams credit: he is taking advantage of the way the game is being called in the ACC by teaching his ball handlers to drive right at defenders, draw contact, and throw up wild shots. The Hokies made more than
their share of spectacular, if not lucky, off-balanced shots last season and won a number of close games. Ken Pom rated the Choksters as the 51st luckiest team (out of 326 teams) and the Hokies won 3 conference games by 1 point and another in double-overtime (thanks to London Perrantes’ shot stopping on top of the rim.) It will be interesting to see if that luck continues this season.
Oh! What this Hokie team might be like if it had a couple of Akil Mitchell type players to go along with all of their guards - but, it doesn’t. So, look for another middle-of-the-pack team for the Carolina basketball fans (aka, Hokie basketball fans) in Blacksburg to follow this year.
Players lost: Zach LeDay, F (16.5 ppg, 7.3 rpg, 1.0 bpg); Seth Allen, G (13.3 ppg, 3.3 apg); Johnny Hamilton, C.
Players returning: Chris Clarke, G/F (11.4 ppg, 7.3 rpg); Ahmed Hill, G (11.4 ppg); Justin Robinson, G (10.4 ppg, 3.0 rpg, 4.8 apg); Justin Bibbs, G (9.2 ppg); Ty Outlaw, G/F (6.3 ppg); Khadim Sy, C (4.0 ppg, 2.7 rpg); Kerry Blackshear, F (injured – missed season.)
Newcomers: N. Alexander-Walker, G (Rivals #29); Wabissa Bede, G (Rivals # 66); Preston Horne, PF.
#6 Duke (last season tied for 5th, 11-7 conference record, 28 – 9 overall)
The talking heads at ESPN would scream “heresy!” if they saw my prediction for Duke to finish 6th in the ACC when most of them have the Blue Devils finishing that high or higher nationally in their way-too-early predictions. Let’s cut through the hype and look at some facts: The Dukies finished in a tie for 5th in the ACC last season, when they were picked #1 in the country by those same talking heads. They lose every player who played significant minutes from that team except for Grayson “Trip” Allen. Sure, Coach K had his usual top 2 recruiting class, but this group of newcomers does not include game-changing players like Jahil Okafor that would warrant a team with this group of freshmen being rated in the top-5 of the country. Kryzeknefnhkerjsekjski will be saddled with an inexperienced group of players led by a schizophrenic senior who can’t get out of his own way and has proven to be a distraction to his team. Where will this team find its leadership on the floor?
There are two reasons why this team should at least stay in the top-half of the conference this season: (1) raw talent can win games despite lack of experience and (2) the makeup of this Duke roster is more like the teams that Krudumpster has had success with in the past – heavier on wings vs. last season’s roster that was heavy on big men that were rarely used. The reason those Duke teams heavy on wings were more successful is that they can better play the over-playing, pressure defense with which Coach K has had success.
On the recruiting trail, the Devils scored point guard Trevon Duval (Rivals #3), power forward Wendall Carter (Rivals #5), shooting guard Gary Trent, Jr. (Rivals #13), wing Alex O’Connell (Rivals #44), and Rivals # 54 small forward Jordan Tucker. They also brought in unrated PG Jordan Goldwire. Former top-15 recruit Marcus Bolden was talked out of transferring and he returns along with little-used St. Anne’s-Belfield (VA) product Javin DeLaurier to give the Dukies additional frontline players to go with Carter.
If Coach K can find some chemistry with this collection of players and convince them to play good defense, then there is the possibility that they could make a post-season run, but a run at the ACC regular season title is less likely.
Players lost: Luke Kennard, G (19.5 ppg, 5.1 rpg, 2.5 apg); Jayson Tatum, F (16.8 ppg, 7.3 rpg, 2.1 apg, 1.1 bpg); Frank Jackson, PG (10.9 ppg); Amile Jefferson, PF (10.9 ppg, 8.4 rpg, 1.9 bpg); Matt Jones, G (7.0 ppg); Harry Giles, PF (3.9 ppg, 3.8 rpg); Chase Jeter, PF (transferred to Arizona); Sean Obi, PF (transfer).
Players returning: Grayson Allen, G (14.5 ppg, 3.5 apg, 0.6 trips per game); Marcus Bolden, PF (1.5 ppg, 1.1 rpg); Javin DeLaurier, PF; Antonio Vrankovic, PF; Jack White, F; Justin Robinson, PF.
Newcomers: Trevon Duval, Jr., PG (Rivals #3); Wendall Carter, PF (Rivals #5); Gary Trent, Jr., SG (Rivals #13); Alex O’Connell, WG (Rivals #44); Jordan Tucker, SF (Rivals #54); Jordan Goldwire, PG.
5. Notre Dame (last season 3-way tie for 2nd place, 12 – 6 conference, 26 – 10 overall)
The Irish return some key components from last year’s squad that surprised most pre-season prognosticators by finishing in a three-way tie for second place in the conference. ACC Player of the Year candidate Bonzie Colson and greatly-improved PG Matt Farrell are back for coach Mike Brey and should keep the Irish near the top of the conference standings. Rising sophomore combo guard T.J. Gibbs returns as well as defensive-specialist Rex Pfleuger and both should see a much larger role in this year’s squad. One of the biggest question marks for the Irish will be what sort of inside play can they get this season from big-man returnees Martinas Geben, Elijah Burns and John Mooney. The Irish were able to successfully play “small” last year but last year’s seniors 6’5” guard Steve Vasturia and 6’8” forward V.J. Beachem had much to do with that success by putting so much pressure on the perimeter (making 145 out of 403 three-point attempts between the 2 of them) that the undersized Colson was free to operate inside against one defender. This season, the 6’5” Colson will be the focus of most defenses and will find the going tougher inside. The Irish could have used the outside shooting of forward Matt Ryan this year but he decided to transfer in the off-season.
Mike Brey does a great job of developing his players and this season, he will either need a couple of the returnees to step up their game or hope that Rivals #52 recruit D. J. Harvey can step in immediately and give his team a boost. If a couple of these players don’t make sizeable leaps in their games this season, the Irish could struggle and finish in the middle of the pack. Alternatively, if the light goes on for a couple of these guys, matching last season’s performance is well within their reach.
Players Lost: V. J. Beachem, F (14.5 ppg, 4.1 rpg, 1.1 bpg); Steve Vasturia, G (13.1 ppg, 3.9 rpg, 3.3 apg, 1.2 spg); Matt Ryan, F (transfer, 3. 6 ppg, .434 3-pt. %); Austin Torres, F , Patrick Mazza, C.
Players Returning: Bonzie Colson, F (17.8 ppg, 10.1 rpg, 1.4 bpg); Matt Farrell, G (14.1 ppg, 5.4 apg); Rex Pfleuger, G (4.7 ppg); Temple Gibbs, G (4.7 ppg); Martinas
Geben, F/C (3.1 ppg, 3.4 rpg); John Mooney, F; Elijah Burns, F; Matt Gregory, F; Nikola Djogo, G.
Newcomers: D. J. Harvey, F (Rivals #52)
4. North Carolina (last season 1st place, 14 – 4 conference, 33 – 7 overall)
It might be easy to dismiss the defending national champs this year given that they lose 3 starters, five key-contributors total, two of whom were NBA first-round draft choices. Gone are All-American Justin Jackson and big-men Kennedy Meeks, Isaiah Hicks, and Tony Bradley as well as back-up point guard Nate Britt. Still, the Tar Heels return enough talent to have a shot of defending their ACC regular season and tournament championships.
The Heels will be especially strong and deep in the backcourt and on the wings with the return of senior PG Joel Berry, senior wing Theo Pinson, and junior sharp-shooting guard Kenny Williams. Pitt transfer Cameron Johnson, a 6’7” junior ball handler, is immediately eligible and could contend for a starting spot. Highly-ranked sophomores Brandon Robinson and Seventh Woods will have a chance for more playing time and the Heels added Rivals #26 guard Jalek Felton, the brother of former Heel star Raymond Felton.
The Achilles Heel (pun intended) for coach Huckleberry Hound Dog’s squad will be in the front court where only final-four hero Luke Maye returns. Maye will have ample opportunity to increase his 5.5 ppg because the only other bigs Carolina has are a trio of freshman, none of whom are ranked in Rivals’ top 100. A four guard look may be in the offing for Roy Williams’ squad this year and the Holes will try and push the tempo to take advantage of their strengths. But the Cheaters will need someone to rebound to make their fast break go so they’ll need at least one of those young bigs to be ready right away.
A bigger problem for UNC this year could be the NCAA if their long investigation of North Carolina’s academic scandal comes to any conclusion. Don’t count on that anytime soon.
Players Lost: Justin Jackson, G/F (18.3 ppg, 4.7 rpg, 2.8 apg); Kennedy Meeks, F (12.5 ppg, 9.5 rpg, 1.2 bpg); Isaiah Hicks, F (11.8 ppg, 5.5 rpg); Tony Bradley, C (7.1 ppg, 5.1 rpg); Nate Britt, G (4.5 ppg, 2.4 apg).
Players Returning: Joel Berry, G (14.7 ppg, 3.1 rpg, 3.1 apg, .383 % 3ptFG); Kenny Williams, G (6.2 ppg, 3.3 rpg, 3.2 apg, .338 % 3ptFG); Theo Pinson, G/F (6.1 ppg,
4.6 rpg, 3.7 apg); Luke Maye, F (5.5 ppg, 3.9 rpg, 40% 3pt.FG); Brandon Robinson, G; Seventh Woods, G.
Newcomers: Cameron Johnson, G (transfer from Pittsburgh, 11.9 ppg, 4.5 rpg); Jalek Felton, G (Rivals; #26); Andrew Platek, G; Brandon Huffman, C; Sterling Manley, C; Garrison Brooks, C (Rivals # 132); Walker Miller, F (walk-on, Wes Miller’s brother); K. J. Smith, G (transfer from Pacific – Kenny Smith’s son, will have to redshirt.)
7. VA Tech (last season 3-way tie for 7th place, 10 – 8 conference, 22 – 11 overall)
The Hokies return all 5 starters and 71% of their minutes played but lose their two best players. “What?” you say. Yes, Coach Buzz Williams brought Zack LeDay and Seth Allen, his two best players and leading scorers, off the bench. So with Tech returning the 2nd most minutes in the ACC, why am I not picking them to improve on their 7th place finish? The answer is that what has made the Hokies difficult to play has also made them vulnerable. Looking at the Choksters’ lineups these days, one has to wonder if Buzz Williams is trying to revolutionize the college game by doing away with big men and going with a 5-guard lineup. The truth is that Williams has been unable to recruit any ACC-level big men to replace his best player, Zach LeDay. Instead, he continues to load up on guards, bringing in guard N. Alexander-Walker (Rivals #29) and guard Wabissa Bede (Rivals #66). LeDay, however, was the player that allowed the 4-guard lineup to work with his ability to score inside and out, his rebounding, and his defense. The Hokies don’t appear to have anyone to fill his shoes. Big man Kerry Blackshear returns from missing the entire season because of injury after showing flashes of promise his freshman season. Khadim Sy started last season but played only 11.4 minutes per game, scoring 4.0 ppg. Neither player appears to have the ability to replace what LeDay brought to the Hokies. Oft’injured wing Chris Clarke brings some toughness and rebounding to the interior but is neither tall enough nor a good enough defender to stop the taller big men in the ACC, nor is he a good shooter in the half court.
The Gobblers won’t miss guard Seth Allen as much as LeDay because they return a busload of capable guards. Justin Robinson, Justin Bibbs, and Ahmed Hill are back as well as wings Clarke and Ty Outlaw. The Turkeys redshirted guard Tyrie Jackson, so with the addition of the 2 freshmen guards, VPI will have 8 guards/wings vying for playing time.
You have to give coach Buzz Williams credit: he is taking advantage of the way the game is being called in the ACC by teaching his ball handlers to drive right at defenders, draw contact, and throw up wild shots. The Hokies made more than
their share of spectacular, if not lucky, off-balanced shots last season and won a number of close games. Ken Pom rated the Choksters as the 51st luckiest team (out of 326 teams) and the Hokies won 3 conference games by 1 point and another in double-overtime (thanks to London Perrantes’ shot stopping on top of the rim.) It will be interesting to see if that luck continues this season.
Oh! What this Hokie team might be like if it had a couple of Akil Mitchell type players to go along with all of their guards - but, it doesn’t. So, look for another middle-of-the-pack team for the Carolina basketball fans (aka, Hokie basketball fans) in Blacksburg to follow this year.
Players lost: Zach LeDay, F (16.5 ppg, 7.3 rpg, 1.0 bpg); Seth Allen, G (13.3 ppg, 3.3 apg); Johnny Hamilton, C.
Players returning: Chris Clarke, G/F (11.4 ppg, 7.3 rpg); Ahmed Hill, G (11.4 ppg); Justin Robinson, G (10.4 ppg, 3.0 rpg, 4.8 apg); Justin Bibbs, G (9.2 ppg); Ty Outlaw, G/F (6.3 ppg); Khadim Sy, C (4.0 ppg, 2.7 rpg); Kerry Blackshear, F (injured – missed season.)
Newcomers: N. Alexander-Walker, G (Rivals #29); Wabissa Bede, G (Rivals # 66); Preston Horne, PF.
#6 Duke (last season tied for 5th, 11-7 conference record, 28 – 9 overall)
The talking heads at ESPN would scream “heresy!” if they saw my prediction for Duke to finish 6th in the ACC when most of them have the Blue Devils finishing that high or higher nationally in their way-too-early predictions. Let’s cut through the hype and look at some facts: The Dukies finished in a tie for 5th in the ACC last season, when they were picked #1 in the country by those same talking heads. They lose every player who played significant minutes from that team except for Grayson “Trip” Allen. Sure, Coach K had his usual top 2 recruiting class, but this group of newcomers does not include game-changing players like Jahil Okafor that would warrant a team with this group of freshmen being rated in the top-5 of the country. Kryzeknefnhkerjsekjski will be saddled with an inexperienced group of players led by a schizophrenic senior who can’t get out of his own way and has proven to be a distraction to his team. Where will this team find its leadership on the floor?
There are two reasons why this team should at least stay in the top-half of the conference this season: (1) raw talent can win games despite lack of experience and (2) the makeup of this Duke roster is more like the teams that Krudumpster has had success with in the past – heavier on wings vs. last season’s roster that was heavy on big men that were rarely used. The reason those Duke teams heavy on wings were more successful is that they can better play the over-playing, pressure defense with which Coach K has had success.
On the recruiting trail, the Devils scored point guard Trevon Duval (Rivals #3), power forward Wendall Carter (Rivals #5), shooting guard Gary Trent, Jr. (Rivals #13), wing Alex O’Connell (Rivals #44), and Rivals # 54 small forward Jordan Tucker. They also brought in unrated PG Jordan Goldwire. Former top-15 recruit Marcus Bolden was talked out of transferring and he returns along with little-used St. Anne’s-Belfield (VA) product Javin DeLaurier to give the Dukies additional frontline players to go with Carter.
If Coach K can find some chemistry with this collection of players and convince them to play good defense, then there is the possibility that they could make a post-season run, but a run at the ACC regular season title is less likely.
Players lost: Luke Kennard, G (19.5 ppg, 5.1 rpg, 2.5 apg); Jayson Tatum, F (16.8 ppg, 7.3 rpg, 2.1 apg, 1.1 bpg); Frank Jackson, PG (10.9 ppg); Amile Jefferson, PF (10.9 ppg, 8.4 rpg, 1.9 bpg); Matt Jones, G (7.0 ppg); Harry Giles, PF (3.9 ppg, 3.8 rpg); Chase Jeter, PF (transferred to Arizona); Sean Obi, PF (transfer).
Players returning: Grayson Allen, G (14.5 ppg, 3.5 apg, 0.6 trips per game); Marcus Bolden, PF (1.5 ppg, 1.1 rpg); Javin DeLaurier, PF; Antonio Vrankovic, PF; Jack White, F; Justin Robinson, PF.
Newcomers: Trevon Duval, Jr., PG (Rivals #3); Wendall Carter, PF (Rivals #5); Gary Trent, Jr., SG (Rivals #13); Alex O’Connell, WG (Rivals #44); Jordan Tucker, SF (Rivals #54); Jordan Goldwire, PG.
5. Notre Dame (last season 3-way tie for 2nd place, 12 – 6 conference, 26 – 10 overall)
The Irish return some key components from last year’s squad that surprised most pre-season prognosticators by finishing in a three-way tie for second place in the conference. ACC Player of the Year candidate Bonzie Colson and greatly-improved PG Matt Farrell are back for coach Mike Brey and should keep the Irish near the top of the conference standings. Rising sophomore combo guard T.J. Gibbs returns as well as defensive-specialist Rex Pfleuger and both should see a much larger role in this year’s squad. One of the biggest question marks for the Irish will be what sort of inside play can they get this season from big-man returnees Martinas Geben, Elijah Burns and John Mooney. The Irish were able to successfully play “small” last year but last year’s seniors 6’5” guard Steve Vasturia and 6’8” forward V.J. Beachem had much to do with that success by putting so much pressure on the perimeter (making 145 out of 403 three-point attempts between the 2 of them) that the undersized Colson was free to operate inside against one defender. This season, the 6’5” Colson will be the focus of most defenses and will find the going tougher inside. The Irish could have used the outside shooting of forward Matt Ryan this year but he decided to transfer in the off-season.
Mike Brey does a great job of developing his players and this season, he will either need a couple of the returnees to step up their game or hope that Rivals #52 recruit D. J. Harvey can step in immediately and give his team a boost. If a couple of these players don’t make sizeable leaps in their games this season, the Irish could struggle and finish in the middle of the pack. Alternatively, if the light goes on for a couple of these guys, matching last season’s performance is well within their reach.
Players Lost: V. J. Beachem, F (14.5 ppg, 4.1 rpg, 1.1 bpg); Steve Vasturia, G (13.1 ppg, 3.9 rpg, 3.3 apg, 1.2 spg); Matt Ryan, F (transfer, 3. 6 ppg, .434 3-pt. %); Austin Torres, F , Patrick Mazza, C.
Players Returning: Bonzie Colson, F (17.8 ppg, 10.1 rpg, 1.4 bpg); Matt Farrell, G (14.1 ppg, 5.4 apg); Rex Pfleuger, G (4.7 ppg); Temple Gibbs, G (4.7 ppg); Martinas
Geben, F/C (3.1 ppg, 3.4 rpg); John Mooney, F; Elijah Burns, F; Matt Gregory, F; Nikola Djogo, G.
Newcomers: D. J. Harvey, F (Rivals #52)
4. North Carolina (last season 1st place, 14 – 4 conference, 33 – 7 overall)
It might be easy to dismiss the defending national champs this year given that they lose 3 starters, five key-contributors total, two of whom were NBA first-round draft choices. Gone are All-American Justin Jackson and big-men Kennedy Meeks, Isaiah Hicks, and Tony Bradley as well as back-up point guard Nate Britt. Still, the Tar Heels return enough talent to have a shot of defending their ACC regular season and tournament championships.
The Heels will be especially strong and deep in the backcourt and on the wings with the return of senior PG Joel Berry, senior wing Theo Pinson, and junior sharp-shooting guard Kenny Williams. Pitt transfer Cameron Johnson, a 6’7” junior ball handler, is immediately eligible and could contend for a starting spot. Highly-ranked sophomores Brandon Robinson and Seventh Woods will have a chance for more playing time and the Heels added Rivals #26 guard Jalek Felton, the brother of former Heel star Raymond Felton.
The Achilles Heel (pun intended) for coach Huckleberry Hound Dog’s squad will be in the front court where only final-four hero Luke Maye returns. Maye will have ample opportunity to increase his 5.5 ppg because the only other bigs Carolina has are a trio of freshman, none of whom are ranked in Rivals’ top 100. A four guard look may be in the offing for Roy Williams’ squad this year and the Holes will try and push the tempo to take advantage of their strengths. But the Cheaters will need someone to rebound to make their fast break go so they’ll need at least one of those young bigs to be ready right away.
A bigger problem for UNC this year could be the NCAA if their long investigation of North Carolina’s academic scandal comes to any conclusion. Don’t count on that anytime soon.
Players Lost: Justin Jackson, G/F (18.3 ppg, 4.7 rpg, 2.8 apg); Kennedy Meeks, F (12.5 ppg, 9.5 rpg, 1.2 bpg); Isaiah Hicks, F (11.8 ppg, 5.5 rpg); Tony Bradley, C (7.1 ppg, 5.1 rpg); Nate Britt, G (4.5 ppg, 2.4 apg).
Players Returning: Joel Berry, G (14.7 ppg, 3.1 rpg, 3.1 apg, .383 % 3ptFG); Kenny Williams, G (6.2 ppg, 3.3 rpg, 3.2 apg, .338 % 3ptFG); Theo Pinson, G/F (6.1 ppg,
4.6 rpg, 3.7 apg); Luke Maye, F (5.5 ppg, 3.9 rpg, 40% 3pt.FG); Brandon Robinson, G; Seventh Woods, G.
Newcomers: Cameron Johnson, G (transfer from Pittsburgh, 11.9 ppg, 4.5 rpg); Jalek Felton, G (Rivals; #26); Andrew Platek, G; Brandon Huffman, C; Sterling Manley, C; Garrison Brooks, C (Rivals # 132); Walker Miller, F (walk-on, Wes Miller’s brother); K. J. Smith, G (transfer from Pacific – Kenny Smith’s son, will have to redshirt.)
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