So in 2012 when we finally started winning, I learned the game of "what place has UVa reached now" ... the idea is mathematically what is possible based on the current standings. Sort of like a "magic number" in baseball in reverse. I like seeing how it moves game to game this time of year and things start really shaking out.
At 8-3, the Hoos have guaranteed themselves to finish no worse than 8-10. BC and Wake have each lost 10 and thanks to the miracle in Winston-Salem, UVa holds the tiebreaker on each. Therefore, the worst UVa can finish is 13th with the 12 seed in the tournament (because of UL's non-participation). Obviously we won't finish anywhere near there, but that is the guarantee, home jerseys on opening day of the ACCT.
If they can win tonight, it won't change anything other than to guarantee 9-9 and to mean that NC State can do no better than tie UVa at 9-9 (though the Pack could still win in Cville and get the tiebreaker). Winning tonight and Saturday puts us ahead of an NC State tiebreak and into, at worst, a tie with GT (provided they beat Wake in Atlanta this week).
And for those who look at this as pessimism, I only do it based on what is mathematically possible in the most simplistic way. I'm sure there are ways to show that it would be mathematically impossible to fall below a certain point based on other results in the league (for instance, Cuse and FSU play Thursday night and each has five losses, so somebody gets put 2 or 3 games back of us, depending on our outcome tonight ... i.e., everybody can't run the table).
Anyway, just interesting to note. We're one or two wins away from guaranteeing one bye in the tournament. The difference between one bye and two will probably be pretty slim this season.
At 8-3, the Hoos have guaranteed themselves to finish no worse than 8-10. BC and Wake have each lost 10 and thanks to the miracle in Winston-Salem, UVa holds the tiebreaker on each. Therefore, the worst UVa can finish is 13th with the 12 seed in the tournament (because of UL's non-participation). Obviously we won't finish anywhere near there, but that is the guarantee, home jerseys on opening day of the ACCT.
If they can win tonight, it won't change anything other than to guarantee 9-9 and to mean that NC State can do no better than tie UVa at 9-9 (though the Pack could still win in Cville and get the tiebreaker). Winning tonight and Saturday puts us ahead of an NC State tiebreak and into, at worst, a tie with GT (provided they beat Wake in Atlanta this week).
And for those who look at this as pessimism, I only do it based on what is mathematically possible in the most simplistic way. I'm sure there are ways to show that it would be mathematically impossible to fall below a certain point based on other results in the league (for instance, Cuse and FSU play Thursday night and each has five losses, so somebody gets put 2 or 3 games back of us, depending on our outcome tonight ... i.e., everybody can't run the table).
Anyway, just interesting to note. We're one or two wins away from guaranteeing one bye in the tournament. The difference between one bye and two will probably be pretty slim this season.
