Yes, I am the poster that Arden originally blasted for saying 9-9 ACC was possible and that now appears a more realistic possibility (although if we don't manage an ACC road win, then 8-10 is likely more realistic with a home loss to UNC). Hopefully we start putting it together on the road and I actually think last night was a step in the right direction, but, unfortunately, the difficulty level also goes up.
That said, 9-9 in the ACC gets us in the dance because that would be 9-9/20-10 and even a first round loss in the ACCT (dropping us to 20-11) would be to someone like Miami, Notre Dame or FSU who is also going to be in the hunt for the tournament (and top 50ish). We would still be ranked somewhere around 25th in the RPI if we go 9-9 in the ACC. Heck, 8-10 is probably enough. I would not want to see the deliberations if we fall to, say 7-11, but with an ACC that people are starting to say might get 10 teams in, it's not impossible. We've already put a lot of hay in the barn, folks.
Think about it ... we are still ranked TENTH in the RPI. That's why Lunardi still has us as a three-seed. We are 5-2 against the top 50 and 3-0 against the top 25. We are 4-0 in neutral court games, including the one over #12 WVU. Now that VT has climbed into the top 100, we do NOT have a loss outside of the top 100. We are 13-4 against a schedule that is ranked 31 out of 345 teams and will likely only climb as we have 6 more games against current top 25 teams and only 1.5 games outside of the top 100 (BC is 195, but NC State is barely outside of the top 100 at 105). I know these numbers will move, but probably not a ton given that we are 15-20 games into the season for most teams. After beating us, FSU moves into the top 50, so that is not a terrible loss on the road either.
To put this in perspective ...
Maryland has ZERO top 50 RPI wins. Anywhere. Still amazing considering this stage of the season.
Duke has ONE top 50 win. Anywhere. #47 Indiana at home. Super impressive.
Arizona has one top 50 win (@#44ASU).
Louisville is 1-3 on the road and has only beaten one top 50 team total (Pitt).
Michigan State has no road win ranked above #89 (Penn St).
Miami has two road wins -- #170 Nebraska and #226 LaSalle, and has lost to #95 Northeastern at home.
Oregon is #7 in the RPI and has one road win.
Even Carolina lost to #136 on the road.
We need to beat VT, BC, and NC State at home and then scratch out 4-6 in the remaining 10 (as any "bad" home loss to a Cuse/Clemson would be offset by a good win over a top 25ish team, likely on the road ... sweeping VT/BC/State/Cuse/Clemson at home would mean zero bad home losses). Of course, with our luck, we will go 9-9 in the ACC, make the NCAA tournament as a six seed and then see Michigan State in the second round as a three seed.
That said, 9-9 in the ACC gets us in the dance because that would be 9-9/20-10 and even a first round loss in the ACCT (dropping us to 20-11) would be to someone like Miami, Notre Dame or FSU who is also going to be in the hunt for the tournament (and top 50ish). We would still be ranked somewhere around 25th in the RPI if we go 9-9 in the ACC. Heck, 8-10 is probably enough. I would not want to see the deliberations if we fall to, say 7-11, but with an ACC that people are starting to say might get 10 teams in, it's not impossible. We've already put a lot of hay in the barn, folks.
Think about it ... we are still ranked TENTH in the RPI. That's why Lunardi still has us as a three-seed. We are 5-2 against the top 50 and 3-0 against the top 25. We are 4-0 in neutral court games, including the one over #12 WVU. Now that VT has climbed into the top 100, we do NOT have a loss outside of the top 100. We are 13-4 against a schedule that is ranked 31 out of 345 teams and will likely only climb as we have 6 more games against current top 25 teams and only 1.5 games outside of the top 100 (BC is 195, but NC State is barely outside of the top 100 at 105). I know these numbers will move, but probably not a ton given that we are 15-20 games into the season for most teams. After beating us, FSU moves into the top 50, so that is not a terrible loss on the road either.
To put this in perspective ...
Maryland has ZERO top 50 RPI wins. Anywhere. Still amazing considering this stage of the season.
Duke has ONE top 50 win. Anywhere. #47 Indiana at home. Super impressive.
Arizona has one top 50 win (@#44ASU).
Louisville is 1-3 on the road and has only beaten one top 50 team total (Pitt).
Michigan State has no road win ranked above #89 (Penn St).
Miami has two road wins -- #170 Nebraska and #226 LaSalle, and has lost to #95 Northeastern at home.
Oregon is #7 in the RPI and has one road win.
Even Carolina lost to #136 on the road.
We need to beat VT, BC, and NC State at home and then scratch out 4-6 in the remaining 10 (as any "bad" home loss to a Cuse/Clemson would be offset by a good win over a top 25ish team, likely on the road ... sweeping VT/BC/State/Cuse/Clemson at home would mean zero bad home losses). Of course, with our luck, we will go 9-9 in the ACC, make the NCAA tournament as a six seed and then see Michigan State in the second round as a three seed.
