UVa had its last truly RPI killing game of the season last night and remained at 6. That's a good sign going forward.
1) Beat VT and NC State and finish above .500 in the ACC. This would also likely wrap a top 4 seed in the NCAAs and top 6 of the ACCT. Too many good wins, too few "bad" losses, as any others would be to top 50s and/or on the road. Handling these two would also prevent any type of potential collapse scenario down the stretch (although I guess theoretically losing their last five would be possible with games @Miami, vs. UNC, @Clemson, vs. UL and an ACCT quarterfinal game against a tough opponent as a potential last five ... though two home losses seems highly unlikely regardless of the difficulty of the opponent).
2) Beat Pitt this weekend and in all likelihood get a double bye. Pitt plus winning one of UL or @Clem would almost assuredly guarantee it.
We would hold tiebreakers over both Notre Dame and Pitt for essentially two or two and half game leads over each after the weekend, even if ND beats Carolina Saturday. We would have a home game against UL to potentially get a tiebreaker over them and thus, only need to finish even with them. We've got a tough game at Clemson to try and get a tiebreaker there. There are almost too many other games between top half teams to drop below too many other teams if UVa takes care of the Panthers Saturday ... Miami, Pitt, Notre Dame, UL, Carolina and Duke play each other a lot, meaning someone has to lose, keeping them below us (i.e., if Miami passes us, Louisville, Pitt, and Notre Dame have lost to the Canes, etc.). Beating Pitt would give a lot of margin for error down the stretch.
3) If they win the next four (@Pitt, VT, @Dook, NCSU), the one-seed talk will start before we even get to Miami, UNC and UL again -- four (or five or six depending on Pitt and Duke) top 25 wins, 10 top 50 wins, multiple top 25 road wins, closing in on Carolina, etc. It would certainly test their ability to handle success given the super difficult home stretch, but an 8-1 finish plus an ACCT semi means this team gets a 1-seed. Closing 7-2 without a headscratcher (i.e. the losses are to UNC, Miami, Pitt, Duke, or UL) should guarantee at least a 2 seed.
1) Beat VT and NC State and finish above .500 in the ACC. This would also likely wrap a top 4 seed in the NCAAs and top 6 of the ACCT. Too many good wins, too few "bad" losses, as any others would be to top 50s and/or on the road. Handling these two would also prevent any type of potential collapse scenario down the stretch (although I guess theoretically losing their last five would be possible with games @Miami, vs. UNC, @Clemson, vs. UL and an ACCT quarterfinal game against a tough opponent as a potential last five ... though two home losses seems highly unlikely regardless of the difficulty of the opponent).
2) Beat Pitt this weekend and in all likelihood get a double bye. Pitt plus winning one of UL or @Clem would almost assuredly guarantee it.
We would hold tiebreakers over both Notre Dame and Pitt for essentially two or two and half game leads over each after the weekend, even if ND beats Carolina Saturday. We would have a home game against UL to potentially get a tiebreaker over them and thus, only need to finish even with them. We've got a tough game at Clemson to try and get a tiebreaker there. There are almost too many other games between top half teams to drop below too many other teams if UVa takes care of the Panthers Saturday ... Miami, Pitt, Notre Dame, UL, Carolina and Duke play each other a lot, meaning someone has to lose, keeping them below us (i.e., if Miami passes us, Louisville, Pitt, and Notre Dame have lost to the Canes, etc.). Beating Pitt would give a lot of margin for error down the stretch.
3) If they win the next four (@Pitt, VT, @Dook, NCSU), the one-seed talk will start before we even get to Miami, UNC and UL again -- four (or five or six depending on Pitt and Duke) top 25 wins, 10 top 50 wins, multiple top 25 road wins, closing in on Carolina, etc. It would certainly test their ability to handle success given the super difficult home stretch, but an 8-1 finish plus an ACCT semi means this team gets a 1-seed. Closing 7-2 without a headscratcher (i.e. the losses are to UNC, Miami, Pitt, Duke, or UL) should guarantee at least a 2 seed.
