First, a scouting report:
"Scouting Report
First, I'll caveat that the Wahoos on the board can certainly add/edit this, but I figured I'd give the scouting report a go anyway.
UVa is what UVa seems to always be in the Tony Bennett era: a fierce defensive team and sneakily efficient offensive team. The names on the jerseys change, but the story stays mostly the same. They will play slow, they will play physically without getting called for fouls (sort of like we used to do), and they will grind out possessions on both ends of the floor. This year's version of the pack line defense has, perhaps surprisingly, been their best to date. As Troublemaker said, they are the best defensive team in the Pomeroy era. They force turnovers, limit fouls, and force contested shots. About the only thing they don't do at an elite level is defensive rebound. But everything else is spectacular.
On offense, they will run on live-ball turnovers, but otherwise will work for their best shot. They don't rebound on the offensive end as is usual of their style, as they prefer to protect the other end with extra bodies. They are very good at protecting the basketball, and are also a terrific 3pt shooting team. Offensively, they are more good than great, but that's just fine because their defense is more than great.
Center: Jack Salt (6'10", 250lb redshirt junior from New Zealand) is the starter at center. Salt is a rugged interior role player for the Cavs. He doesn't have much/any offensive polish, and he isn't flashy defensively either. But he knows his role and just bangs inside. Salt plays about 20 mpg, and is backed up nominally by Mamadi Diakite (6'9", 225lb redshirt sophomore from Guinea). Diakite is lanky and athletic, and with a bit more offensive polish than Salt. But he's far less strong, and tends to really play more PF than C. Isiah Wilkins (6'7", 225lb senior) will usually take the tougher assignment when Salt sits. In cases of emergency, Jay Huff (7'1", 230lb redshirt freshman) can play spot minutes. Though they try to avoid this if at all possible.
Forwards: Wilkins is the starter, and is the glue that ties the defense together. He is an elite defender, and one of the rare players who generates both blocks and steals well but also plays great positional defense (i.e., he doesn't sell out for blocks and steals). I can't say enough good things about his defensive skills. He is capable defensively guarding 1 to 5, and will take the toughest interior defensive assignment and almost always will win it. I expect him to give Bagley a real headache in this one. Wilkins also rebounds well on both ends (again, a phenomenal trait to be able to block shots, get steals, and get defensive rebounds while also playing good positional defense) and hits his free throws at 76%. When Wilkins sits, De'Andre Hunter (6'7", 220lb redshirt freshman) fills in. Hunter is a really dynamic athlete with guard skills to go along with his solid frame and athleticism. He's also a talented and versatile defender, though not as sound as Wilkins (again, few are). Hunter also provides scoring punch, energy, and aggressiveness. He's going to be a really good one for UVa, and his recent showings suggest sooner rather than later.
Wings: Kyle Guy (6'2", 175lb sophomore) and Devon Hall (6'5", 210lb redshirt senior) are the starters, and both deserve all-ACC consideration. Guy is electric and flashy, with terrific leaping ability and shooting touch from anywhere on the floor. He is smallish, but doesn't let that stop him from being a dynamite scorer. Hall is less explosive, but much stronger and an elite shooter. If Wilkins is the defensive glue, these two along with PG Ty Jerome (6'5", 200lb sophomore) are the catalysts for UVa's offense. They each will probe the defense with their dribble and look for openings. If none are there, they'll swing it back to one of the other three and reset. And all are terrific catch-and-shoot threats. Hall is also a terrific passer. Hunter will play on the wings too, splitting his time between the 3 and a stretch 4 spot.
Guards: Jerome is the starting PG, and is a long and skilled player. Jerome doesn't have a ton of athleticism, but can really shoot and plays really well within the system. Like Guy and Hall, Jerome is also quite comfortable playing off ball as a catch-and-shoot guy. The three of them are nearly seamless in their handling of the offense. Behind Jerome is Nigel Johnson (6'1", 180lb grad transfer from Rutgers most recently), a quick and pesky guard who focuses more on defense than offense as he is less skilled than his 3 guard teammates.
When we are on offense, it will be really interesting to see how our bigs match up against their pack line. UVa typically doubles the post, which is usually REALLY effective. But with our height/length advantage and the passing skill of our bigs, it will be interesting to see if we can pass over the double team in the paint for baskets. Again, easier said than done, but that's one of the few ways to beat the pack line. The other is to hit 3s, which is historically how we've beaten UVa. But that's not a strength of this Duke team. Or, at least, it has not seemed to be a strength. We've certainly had a few good shooting nights. It'd be nice if Allen and Trent and O'Connell are hitting from deep.
On the other end, UVa isn't an explosively athletic team. That in theory bodes well for our man-to-man defense. But they will be patient and will look to exploit weaknesses late in the clock, which is not great for us. They also shoot the 3 really well, which has been a problem for us.
It should be a really interesting game. Their defense is uber-elite. Our offense is uber-elite. Their offense is decent but not great. Our defense has been very good recently but for the season is pretty mediocre. Will be a really interesting test, and in theory is our toughest remaining game on the ACC schedule."
Continued...
"A few things to add based on Virginia's stats.
Shooting
UVA can really shoot the ball well. They are averaging 39.3% from 3-point range (33rd in the nation) and 76.8% from the line (24th). Kyle Guy (42.6% 3P%/88.9% FT%), Devon Hall (47.2%/93.0%), and Ty Jerome (42.3%/100.0%) are all fantastic shooters. They don't go to the line all that often, which is nice. But they take a lot of threes and make a lot of them. The other UVA players are not as good at shooting. The gulf is quite wide. Closing out on the three UVA guards and forcing them inside the arc, where they are much worse shooters, would be a good idea. Guy, Hall, and Jerome all shoot below 50% from inside the arc.
On the defensive side, UVA limits shots. They are #2 in the nation in Opponent's Shooting % at 36.4%, #5 in 2P% at 41.0%, and #5 in 3P% at 29.1%. It's hard to shoot against them. Of course, Duke has faced other tough shooting defensive team already this season in Miami and Michigan State (which is not as good at defending the 3-point line). When Duke faced those defenses, they shot 52.4% against Miami (thanks Gary Trent, Jr.!) and 39.1% against Michigan State (thanks Grayson Allen!). Florida State is in the Top 25 in the nation in 3P% as well and Duke shot 26.7% against them. That was largely due to Gary Trent, Jr. and Trevon Duval going a combined 3-14 from 3. With how Trent, Jr. has been shooting the ball of late, nailing those outside shots will be key. And I wouldn't be surprised to see Wendell Carter, Jr. step out to the 3-point line and take a few open jumpers. Carter, Jr. has been shooting an absurd 48.0% from 3 on the season, mostly taking uncontested jumpers. If Jack Salt is going to float out to the perimeter to guard against that, Carter can most definitely drive in the lane for a layup or dump-off to Bagley III from time to time. At any rate, shooting will be key against UVA.
Rebounding
Virginia's defense is really great at generating steals (6th in the nation in steal %), forcing turnovers (15th), and blocking shots (28th). If they have one defensive flaw, it's on the boards. UVA is not a particularly good rebounding team. They are in the bottom half of the nation (193rd) in offensive rebounding rate and 93rd in defensive rebounding rate (74.8%). Duke, meanwhile, is #1 in the nation in offensive rebounding rate (39.1%). Curiously, the Blue Devils are just 102nd in defensive rebounding rate (74.7%), but that doesn't seem like a flaw that UVA is poised to exploit.
My hunch is that UVA is running away from the offensive rebounds to control the pace of play. UNC, a team that loves to get out in transition, really struggled to score against UVA. It's probably that UVAs guards are abandoning the offensive glass to keep the pace of play slow. The numbers sort of bear that out. Kyle Guy, Devon Hall, and Ty Jerome all have offensive rebounding rates of 1.7% or less. Gary Trent, Jr. and Grayson Allen are at 3.2% and 2.6%, for comparison. It's not that the UVA guys are short, either. They are about the same size as Duke's guards. On the defensive boards, the UVA guards fair much better. If Bagley III and Carter, Jr. are only battling two UVA players for defensive boards, I think that will end up in Duke's favor. UVA will be limited to one shot per possession.
To win, Duke will have to exploit its advantages on the glass and mitigate at least one or more of the strengths of this UVA team. That could be perimeter shooting or limiting turnovers. Duke's edge on the glass could keep possessions alive and create opportunities for easy baskets. It could also mean that Duke finds a way to keep UVA from shooting well from deep.
It's going to be a fascinating and intense matchup. I expect a relatively close game. Hopefully, Grayson or Gary (or both) will hit a few 3's in the last 10 minutes of the game to open things up a bit. Let's Go Duke!"
And now for a couple of quotes from their fans:
"A note about UVA's defense.
Their current defensive efficiency (kenpom) of 81.5 is, by far, the best in the kenpom era. Seriously. Just use my link and click back through the years, and you'll see that nobody comes close to 81.5. It's a sick number, as the kids would say.
If UVA continues at this rate, it would have a good argument to be the greatest defensive team ever."
"I've seen some form of this comment in a few places. UVa's offense is not mediocre. It is very good. It isn't as efficient as our offense, but it is a very good offense. Top-40 nationally, top-5 in the ACC.
Their defense is unquestionably better than their offense, but their offense is still good. Their offense has been better than our defense thus far."
"To add to the absurdity, UVA ranks #1 in D with a defensive efficiency of 81.5. The #2 team? Cincinnati, with a 85.6!!!!!
Tony Bennett better get ACC Coach of the Year and, hopefully, NCAA Coach of the Year.
I'd rather have elite offense (from a viewer perspective), but I'm so jealous of this defense."
"Scouting Report
First, I'll caveat that the Wahoos on the board can certainly add/edit this, but I figured I'd give the scouting report a go anyway.
UVa is what UVa seems to always be in the Tony Bennett era: a fierce defensive team and sneakily efficient offensive team. The names on the jerseys change, but the story stays mostly the same. They will play slow, they will play physically without getting called for fouls (sort of like we used to do), and they will grind out possessions on both ends of the floor. This year's version of the pack line defense has, perhaps surprisingly, been their best to date. As Troublemaker said, they are the best defensive team in the Pomeroy era. They force turnovers, limit fouls, and force contested shots. About the only thing they don't do at an elite level is defensive rebound. But everything else is spectacular.
On offense, they will run on live-ball turnovers, but otherwise will work for their best shot. They don't rebound on the offensive end as is usual of their style, as they prefer to protect the other end with extra bodies. They are very good at protecting the basketball, and are also a terrific 3pt shooting team. Offensively, they are more good than great, but that's just fine because their defense is more than great.
Center: Jack Salt (6'10", 250lb redshirt junior from New Zealand) is the starter at center. Salt is a rugged interior role player for the Cavs. He doesn't have much/any offensive polish, and he isn't flashy defensively either. But he knows his role and just bangs inside. Salt plays about 20 mpg, and is backed up nominally by Mamadi Diakite (6'9", 225lb redshirt sophomore from Guinea). Diakite is lanky and athletic, and with a bit more offensive polish than Salt. But he's far less strong, and tends to really play more PF than C. Isiah Wilkins (6'7", 225lb senior) will usually take the tougher assignment when Salt sits. In cases of emergency, Jay Huff (7'1", 230lb redshirt freshman) can play spot minutes. Though they try to avoid this if at all possible.
Forwards: Wilkins is the starter, and is the glue that ties the defense together. He is an elite defender, and one of the rare players who generates both blocks and steals well but also plays great positional defense (i.e., he doesn't sell out for blocks and steals). I can't say enough good things about his defensive skills. He is capable defensively guarding 1 to 5, and will take the toughest interior defensive assignment and almost always will win it. I expect him to give Bagley a real headache in this one. Wilkins also rebounds well on both ends (again, a phenomenal trait to be able to block shots, get steals, and get defensive rebounds while also playing good positional defense) and hits his free throws at 76%. When Wilkins sits, De'Andre Hunter (6'7", 220lb redshirt freshman) fills in. Hunter is a really dynamic athlete with guard skills to go along with his solid frame and athleticism. He's also a talented and versatile defender, though not as sound as Wilkins (again, few are). Hunter also provides scoring punch, energy, and aggressiveness. He's going to be a really good one for UVa, and his recent showings suggest sooner rather than later.
Wings: Kyle Guy (6'2", 175lb sophomore) and Devon Hall (6'5", 210lb redshirt senior) are the starters, and both deserve all-ACC consideration. Guy is electric and flashy, with terrific leaping ability and shooting touch from anywhere on the floor. He is smallish, but doesn't let that stop him from being a dynamite scorer. Hall is less explosive, but much stronger and an elite shooter. If Wilkins is the defensive glue, these two along with PG Ty Jerome (6'5", 200lb sophomore) are the catalysts for UVa's offense. They each will probe the defense with their dribble and look for openings. If none are there, they'll swing it back to one of the other three and reset. And all are terrific catch-and-shoot threats. Hall is also a terrific passer. Hunter will play on the wings too, splitting his time between the 3 and a stretch 4 spot.
Guards: Jerome is the starting PG, and is a long and skilled player. Jerome doesn't have a ton of athleticism, but can really shoot and plays really well within the system. Like Guy and Hall, Jerome is also quite comfortable playing off ball as a catch-and-shoot guy. The three of them are nearly seamless in their handling of the offense. Behind Jerome is Nigel Johnson (6'1", 180lb grad transfer from Rutgers most recently), a quick and pesky guard who focuses more on defense than offense as he is less skilled than his 3 guard teammates.
When we are on offense, it will be really interesting to see how our bigs match up against their pack line. UVa typically doubles the post, which is usually REALLY effective. But with our height/length advantage and the passing skill of our bigs, it will be interesting to see if we can pass over the double team in the paint for baskets. Again, easier said than done, but that's one of the few ways to beat the pack line. The other is to hit 3s, which is historically how we've beaten UVa. But that's not a strength of this Duke team. Or, at least, it has not seemed to be a strength. We've certainly had a few good shooting nights. It'd be nice if Allen and Trent and O'Connell are hitting from deep.
On the other end, UVa isn't an explosively athletic team. That in theory bodes well for our man-to-man defense. But they will be patient and will look to exploit weaknesses late in the clock, which is not great for us. They also shoot the 3 really well, which has been a problem for us.
It should be a really interesting game. Their defense is uber-elite. Our offense is uber-elite. Their offense is decent but not great. Our defense has been very good recently but for the season is pretty mediocre. Will be a really interesting test, and in theory is our toughest remaining game on the ACC schedule."
Continued...
"A few things to add based on Virginia's stats.
Shooting
UVA can really shoot the ball well. They are averaging 39.3% from 3-point range (33rd in the nation) and 76.8% from the line (24th). Kyle Guy (42.6% 3P%/88.9% FT%), Devon Hall (47.2%/93.0%), and Ty Jerome (42.3%/100.0%) are all fantastic shooters. They don't go to the line all that often, which is nice. But they take a lot of threes and make a lot of them. The other UVA players are not as good at shooting. The gulf is quite wide. Closing out on the three UVA guards and forcing them inside the arc, where they are much worse shooters, would be a good idea. Guy, Hall, and Jerome all shoot below 50% from inside the arc.
On the defensive side, UVA limits shots. They are #2 in the nation in Opponent's Shooting % at 36.4%, #5 in 2P% at 41.0%, and #5 in 3P% at 29.1%. It's hard to shoot against them. Of course, Duke has faced other tough shooting defensive team already this season in Miami and Michigan State (which is not as good at defending the 3-point line). When Duke faced those defenses, they shot 52.4% against Miami (thanks Gary Trent, Jr.!) and 39.1% against Michigan State (thanks Grayson Allen!). Florida State is in the Top 25 in the nation in 3P% as well and Duke shot 26.7% against them. That was largely due to Gary Trent, Jr. and Trevon Duval going a combined 3-14 from 3. With how Trent, Jr. has been shooting the ball of late, nailing those outside shots will be key. And I wouldn't be surprised to see Wendell Carter, Jr. step out to the 3-point line and take a few open jumpers. Carter, Jr. has been shooting an absurd 48.0% from 3 on the season, mostly taking uncontested jumpers. If Jack Salt is going to float out to the perimeter to guard against that, Carter can most definitely drive in the lane for a layup or dump-off to Bagley III from time to time. At any rate, shooting will be key against UVA.
Rebounding
Virginia's defense is really great at generating steals (6th in the nation in steal %), forcing turnovers (15th), and blocking shots (28th). If they have one defensive flaw, it's on the boards. UVA is not a particularly good rebounding team. They are in the bottom half of the nation (193rd) in offensive rebounding rate and 93rd in defensive rebounding rate (74.8%). Duke, meanwhile, is #1 in the nation in offensive rebounding rate (39.1%). Curiously, the Blue Devils are just 102nd in defensive rebounding rate (74.7%), but that doesn't seem like a flaw that UVA is poised to exploit.
My hunch is that UVA is running away from the offensive rebounds to control the pace of play. UNC, a team that loves to get out in transition, really struggled to score against UVA. It's probably that UVAs guards are abandoning the offensive glass to keep the pace of play slow. The numbers sort of bear that out. Kyle Guy, Devon Hall, and Ty Jerome all have offensive rebounding rates of 1.7% or less. Gary Trent, Jr. and Grayson Allen are at 3.2% and 2.6%, for comparison. It's not that the UVA guys are short, either. They are about the same size as Duke's guards. On the defensive boards, the UVA guards fair much better. If Bagley III and Carter, Jr. are only battling two UVA players for defensive boards, I think that will end up in Duke's favor. UVA will be limited to one shot per possession.
To win, Duke will have to exploit its advantages on the glass and mitigate at least one or more of the strengths of this UVA team. That could be perimeter shooting or limiting turnovers. Duke's edge on the glass could keep possessions alive and create opportunities for easy baskets. It could also mean that Duke finds a way to keep UVA from shooting well from deep.
It's going to be a fascinating and intense matchup. I expect a relatively close game. Hopefully, Grayson or Gary (or both) will hit a few 3's in the last 10 minutes of the game to open things up a bit. Let's Go Duke!"
And now for a couple of quotes from their fans:
"A note about UVA's defense.
Their current defensive efficiency (kenpom) of 81.5 is, by far, the best in the kenpom era. Seriously. Just use my link and click back through the years, and you'll see that nobody comes close to 81.5. It's a sick number, as the kids would say.
If UVA continues at this rate, it would have a good argument to be the greatest defensive team ever."
"I've seen some form of this comment in a few places. UVa's offense is not mediocre. It is very good. It isn't as efficient as our offense, but it is a very good offense. Top-40 nationally, top-5 in the ACC.
Their defense is unquestionably better than their offense, but their offense is still good. Their offense has been better than our defense thus far."
"To add to the absurdity, UVA ranks #1 in D with a defensive efficiency of 81.5. The #2 team? Cincinnati, with a 85.6!!!!!
Tony Bennett better get ACC Coach of the Year and, hopefully, NCAA Coach of the Year.
I'd rather have elite offense (from a viewer perspective), but I'm so jealous of this defense."
