With everything that has been reported and speculated in the 10 or so days since UCLA and USC announced their move to the B1G, I figured I'd share a few of my thoughts on where UVa fits into realignment, and the information that's out there so far.
I'll start with the UVa/SEC stuff, first reported by Braden Keith from Swim Swam (a college swimming site). For starters, I know that Braden is a reputable swimming source and their publication does a great job covering the sport. And from everything I've seen and heard from him since the report, I'm confident that he's not making this up, or exaggerating. I'm sure he's hearing this from someone and the "who" on that is a mystery.
First, I would say that these moves are typically extremely well-guarded secrets and a swimming coach at a school, for example, probably isn't going to know what's going on. The USC/UCLA move a few weeks ago was out of the blue. Same with Texas and Oklahoma last year. When Pitt and Syracuse joined the ACC, the news dropped randomly in the middle of a college football Saturday afternoon and left everyone scrambling. It's possible that this is legit info from a great source that got the scoop early, but it's also possible that Braden's source is jumping the gun, or turning speculation into fact, etc. "UVa, UNC, Clemson and FSU have reached out to the SEC to gauge interest" is a far cry from the actual headline, that the schools and the conference were in negotiations. Time will tell, and if this comes to pass, Braden deserves credit for getting it first.
Second, while I do believe the SEC could be interested in adding these four schools now or down the road, I find it harder to believe that ESPN would be orchestrating such a move, and as Braden reported, are attempting to blow up their TV deal with the ACC. The ACC's TV deal is a coup for ESPN, who got the league locked into lower payouts when they agreed to help launch the ACC Network. That deal runs for 14 more years, and is very, very ESPN friendly. Why would they want to pay UNC, for example, $100 million vs the $40 or so million they would have to pay for their rights in the ACC? Especially while going through what seems like a major headache trying to work around the ACC Grant of Rights and the TV contract. For now, ACC content is a good thing for ESPN, at the price they are paying. And unless they work to blow the league up, the league is sort of locked into this deal for more than a decade to come. And the four schools rumored to go from ACC to SEC wouldn't transform the SEC's value in a way that it's a no brainer. The league is already set to be the premier conference in college football, or at least part of a new "Power 2," whether they add 4 more schools or not, especially once Oklahoma and Texas arrive.
There was one caveat that occurred to me though, which might make the change worth doing, at least in some respect: trying to block the B1G (and their TV partner, FOX) from poaching those schools for themselves, particularly UVa and UNC in this scenario. Virginia and North Carolina are the two biggest states left in the country that do not have a team in either the SEC or the B1G now, or at least once UCLA, USC, Texas and Oklahoma get to their new leagues. North Carolina is the 10th-most populated state in the country, and Virginia is 12th. And the big difference here, for both power leagues, would be moving those states from out-of-market to in-market, which allows those leagues (and their associated TV networks) to charge far more $$ per cable subscriber in those states than they can in out-of-market states. We're talking about tens of millions of dollars annually, if my math is correct. Media markets aren't as important as they were in the last round of realignment (Rutgers isn't going to the B1G in 2022, for example), but UVa and UNC are in unclaimed territory to a degree. So the SEC jumping on them before the B1G can is the only chess move that makes sense, to me, for ESPN in this scenario.
With that said, it does seem like the B1G is content to stand pat and wait for Notre Dame, and it would be a bit of a surprise if they went after ACC schools at this point. It's pretty clear that the league isn't going to poach the rest of the PAC-12 at this point, so it seems like its Notre Dame or bust for the B1G right now. There would probably be some mutual interest between UVa and the B1G if the league did want to expand and add to their east coast footprint, same with UNC. Virginia meets the B1G's informal AAU member criteria, while many other schools don't.
And while I don't think a UVa move to the SEC at the moment adds up for that league or ESPN, I do believe mutual interest between the two makes sense. Virginia and North Carolina being tied together in these scenarios also makes sense. And it's not unfathomable that UVa and the SEC have touched base regarding interest. There are just a lot of hurdles in this scenario, including the Grant of Rights issue, and whether it is financially worth it for the SEC and its member schools to poach the ACC schools. Down the road, if the Grant of Rights agreement seems more flimsy or is easier to pay out of, then I could see this being revisited. And there's always the chance that the ACC schools looking to leave (and/or ESPN) feel that they can get out of the agreement in some fashion, which could speed up exits.
Let's talk about the ACC, and what's next for the league. Obviously, if they could add Notre Dame, they would. The Irish don't want to do that, at least not right now. Currently, ND can get to the College Football Playoff as an independent. If the new CFP is all auto-bids or something, then yes, they would have to join a league or get locked out. But for now, they can just wait it out. They have an agreement with the ACC that is mutually beneficial; they get to host their other sports in a league they want them in, and the ACC gets a little more TV money for ND's football games with ACC schools each year. The ACC adding ND seems like the only scenario where they could keep their membership intact or happy, and dramatically increase their television revenue. ND to the ACC seems less likely by the day, and if the Irish are forced to join a league eventually, ESPN would have to really make it worth ND's while to join the ACC (where ESPN owns the rights) over the B1G, which now includes one of ND's arch-rivals in USC, and makes far more TV money than the ACC. If ESPN says "we'll give the ACC the best deal within reason if you join and you can bring another school of your choice with you" or something, maybe that does it. But that would only work if ND is forced to join a league down the road. For now, they value independence too much and can still achieve all their goals without joining a league.
Is there anything else the ACC can do to catch up? There don't seem to be obvious options. I see people suggesting adding schools like Navy or the PAC-12 schools like Stanford, etc. ESPN would have to see the value in that, and agree to redo a deal that is very much in their favor to give the ACC some more TV money. I don't think there's any schools out there at this point that move the needle enough to make that worth it, or would provide dramatically more TV money. Not to mention adding schools could put the GoR in jeopardy, which likely defeats the purpose as a few of the league's biggest brands (potentially including UVa) could use that opportunity to jump ship with lesser financial penalties.
The talk of "loose partnerships" with the PAC-12 or TV media rights sharing seems like rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic. Unless, of course, ESPN sees the value in "saving" the ACC and keeping them afloat with an improved TV deal. And even if they do that, teams like Clemson, FSU and even UVa might say "it's great that you increased our TV payouts from 36 million per school to 45 million per school, but we're still 50 million behind the SEC and the B1G so we're leaving as soon as we can." They might not be able to jump right away, but eventually they could.
So for now, the ACC is relegated from being one of the Power 5 to one of the second-tier 3 (along with the Big 12 and PAC 12) fighting for survival in whatever the next version of major college football looks like. We don't know what the playoff will look like, or if any of these attempts to add to the ACC's TV value will work. It doesn't seem like the ACC has a move outside of a dramatic shift from Notre Dame, that can put things right. It feels like they may limp along for a while, or get a slightly better deal from ESPN to do something with the PAC 12, but eventually the teams that get invited to the SEC or B1G will depart when they are financially able to work around GoR.
In this current scenario, Virginia (and others) should be doing their due diligence, looking at GoR to see if there's an out, and talking to the SEC and B1G about interest in a move. If a move presents itself and isn't going to cost a half-billion dollars, UVa probably has to take it.
I'll start with the UVa/SEC stuff, first reported by Braden Keith from Swim Swam (a college swimming site). For starters, I know that Braden is a reputable swimming source and their publication does a great job covering the sport. And from everything I've seen and heard from him since the report, I'm confident that he's not making this up, or exaggerating. I'm sure he's hearing this from someone and the "who" on that is a mystery.
First, I would say that these moves are typically extremely well-guarded secrets and a swimming coach at a school, for example, probably isn't going to know what's going on. The USC/UCLA move a few weeks ago was out of the blue. Same with Texas and Oklahoma last year. When Pitt and Syracuse joined the ACC, the news dropped randomly in the middle of a college football Saturday afternoon and left everyone scrambling. It's possible that this is legit info from a great source that got the scoop early, but it's also possible that Braden's source is jumping the gun, or turning speculation into fact, etc. "UVa, UNC, Clemson and FSU have reached out to the SEC to gauge interest" is a far cry from the actual headline, that the schools and the conference were in negotiations. Time will tell, and if this comes to pass, Braden deserves credit for getting it first.
Second, while I do believe the SEC could be interested in adding these four schools now or down the road, I find it harder to believe that ESPN would be orchestrating such a move, and as Braden reported, are attempting to blow up their TV deal with the ACC. The ACC's TV deal is a coup for ESPN, who got the league locked into lower payouts when they agreed to help launch the ACC Network. That deal runs for 14 more years, and is very, very ESPN friendly. Why would they want to pay UNC, for example, $100 million vs the $40 or so million they would have to pay for their rights in the ACC? Especially while going through what seems like a major headache trying to work around the ACC Grant of Rights and the TV contract. For now, ACC content is a good thing for ESPN, at the price they are paying. And unless they work to blow the league up, the league is sort of locked into this deal for more than a decade to come. And the four schools rumored to go from ACC to SEC wouldn't transform the SEC's value in a way that it's a no brainer. The league is already set to be the premier conference in college football, or at least part of a new "Power 2," whether they add 4 more schools or not, especially once Oklahoma and Texas arrive.
There was one caveat that occurred to me though, which might make the change worth doing, at least in some respect: trying to block the B1G (and their TV partner, FOX) from poaching those schools for themselves, particularly UVa and UNC in this scenario. Virginia and North Carolina are the two biggest states left in the country that do not have a team in either the SEC or the B1G now, or at least once UCLA, USC, Texas and Oklahoma get to their new leagues. North Carolina is the 10th-most populated state in the country, and Virginia is 12th. And the big difference here, for both power leagues, would be moving those states from out-of-market to in-market, which allows those leagues (and their associated TV networks) to charge far more $$ per cable subscriber in those states than they can in out-of-market states. We're talking about tens of millions of dollars annually, if my math is correct. Media markets aren't as important as they were in the last round of realignment (Rutgers isn't going to the B1G in 2022, for example), but UVa and UNC are in unclaimed territory to a degree. So the SEC jumping on them before the B1G can is the only chess move that makes sense, to me, for ESPN in this scenario.
With that said, it does seem like the B1G is content to stand pat and wait for Notre Dame, and it would be a bit of a surprise if they went after ACC schools at this point. It's pretty clear that the league isn't going to poach the rest of the PAC-12 at this point, so it seems like its Notre Dame or bust for the B1G right now. There would probably be some mutual interest between UVa and the B1G if the league did want to expand and add to their east coast footprint, same with UNC. Virginia meets the B1G's informal AAU member criteria, while many other schools don't.
And while I don't think a UVa move to the SEC at the moment adds up for that league or ESPN, I do believe mutual interest between the two makes sense. Virginia and North Carolina being tied together in these scenarios also makes sense. And it's not unfathomable that UVa and the SEC have touched base regarding interest. There are just a lot of hurdles in this scenario, including the Grant of Rights issue, and whether it is financially worth it for the SEC and its member schools to poach the ACC schools. Down the road, if the Grant of Rights agreement seems more flimsy or is easier to pay out of, then I could see this being revisited. And there's always the chance that the ACC schools looking to leave (and/or ESPN) feel that they can get out of the agreement in some fashion, which could speed up exits.
Let's talk about the ACC, and what's next for the league. Obviously, if they could add Notre Dame, they would. The Irish don't want to do that, at least not right now. Currently, ND can get to the College Football Playoff as an independent. If the new CFP is all auto-bids or something, then yes, they would have to join a league or get locked out. But for now, they can just wait it out. They have an agreement with the ACC that is mutually beneficial; they get to host their other sports in a league they want them in, and the ACC gets a little more TV money for ND's football games with ACC schools each year. The ACC adding ND seems like the only scenario where they could keep their membership intact or happy, and dramatically increase their television revenue. ND to the ACC seems less likely by the day, and if the Irish are forced to join a league eventually, ESPN would have to really make it worth ND's while to join the ACC (where ESPN owns the rights) over the B1G, which now includes one of ND's arch-rivals in USC, and makes far more TV money than the ACC. If ESPN says "we'll give the ACC the best deal within reason if you join and you can bring another school of your choice with you" or something, maybe that does it. But that would only work if ND is forced to join a league down the road. For now, they value independence too much and can still achieve all their goals without joining a league.
Is there anything else the ACC can do to catch up? There don't seem to be obvious options. I see people suggesting adding schools like Navy or the PAC-12 schools like Stanford, etc. ESPN would have to see the value in that, and agree to redo a deal that is very much in their favor to give the ACC some more TV money. I don't think there's any schools out there at this point that move the needle enough to make that worth it, or would provide dramatically more TV money. Not to mention adding schools could put the GoR in jeopardy, which likely defeats the purpose as a few of the league's biggest brands (potentially including UVa) could use that opportunity to jump ship with lesser financial penalties.
The talk of "loose partnerships" with the PAC-12 or TV media rights sharing seems like rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic. Unless, of course, ESPN sees the value in "saving" the ACC and keeping them afloat with an improved TV deal. And even if they do that, teams like Clemson, FSU and even UVa might say "it's great that you increased our TV payouts from 36 million per school to 45 million per school, but we're still 50 million behind the SEC and the B1G so we're leaving as soon as we can." They might not be able to jump right away, but eventually they could.
So for now, the ACC is relegated from being one of the Power 5 to one of the second-tier 3 (along with the Big 12 and PAC 12) fighting for survival in whatever the next version of major college football looks like. We don't know what the playoff will look like, or if any of these attempts to add to the ACC's TV value will work. It doesn't seem like the ACC has a move outside of a dramatic shift from Notre Dame, that can put things right. It feels like they may limp along for a while, or get a slightly better deal from ESPN to do something with the PAC 12, but eventually the teams that get invited to the SEC or B1G will depart when they are financially able to work around GoR.
In this current scenario, Virginia (and others) should be doing their due diligence, looking at GoR to see if there's an out, and talking to the SEC and B1G about interest in a move. If a move presents itself and isn't going to cost a half-billion dollars, UVa probably has to take it.
