This is the last of this three-part series. Enjoy!
Tier 1: The top shelf: places 1-5
5. N.C. STATE (last season: 9-9 ACC (tied for 8th); 24-12 overall)
Kevin Keatts’ program has made steady progress since he took over in Raleigh and this year’s addition of the Pack looks to be his best and most-experienced to date. N.C. State is loaded in the backcourt as C. J. Bryce, Markell Johnson, Braxton Beverly, Devon Daniels, and Blake Harris return to form the deepest and most-experienced guard group in the league.
Inside play will likely determine just how far this team goes this year. D. J. Funderburk showed promise in the post last season and he’ll be joined by some immediately eligible veterans in the frontcourt, led by Lehigh grad transfer Pat Andree. This is a deep Wolfpack team and could be one of the league’s biggest surprises if Keatts can get solid inside play and get his team playing good defense and team basketball.
Returning Players: C. J. Bryce, 6’5”, 195 lbs., G, Sr., 11.6 ppg, 4.6 rpg, 34.5% 3-pt.; Markell Johnson, 6’1”, 175 lbs., PG, Sr., 12.6 ppg, 4.2 apg, 42.2% 3-pt.; Braxton Beverly, 6’0”, 180 lbs., G, Jr., 9.4 ppg, 2.5 apg, 34.7% 3-pt.; Devon Daniels, 6’5”, 200 lbs., G, Jr., 9.3 ppg, 4.4 rpg; Blake Harris, 6’3”, 190 lbs., G, Jr., 3.1 ppg, 42.1% 3-pt.; D. J. Funderburk, 6’10”, 210 lbs., F, Jr., 8.8 ppg, 4.2 rpg, 1.1 bpg; Manny Bates, 6’11”, 221 lbs, F/C, RS Fr., ; Jericole Hellems, 6’7”, 198 lbs., F, So., 5.3 ppg.
New Players: Dareon Seabron, 6’6”, 190 lbs., SG, (Rivals #124); Pat Andree, 6’8”, 225 lbs., PF, (grad transfer from Lehigh, 12.9 ppg, 6.2 rpg, 41.9% 3pt.); Danny Dixon, 6’10”, 230 lbs., grad transfer from UKMC, 7.5 ppg, 3.6 rpg; Atticus Taylor, 6’7”, 205 lbs., So., JUCO transfer, 9.0 ppg, 7.4 rpg.
Departing Players: Torin Dorn, 6’5”, 210 lbs., G/F, 14.0 ppg, 7.2 rpg; Eric Lockett, 6’5”, 193 lbs., G, 4.4 ppg, 42.3% 3-pt.; Wyatt Walker, 6’7”, 240 lbs., F/C, 4.8 ppg, 4.5 rpg (decided to forego final season.)
4. NORTH CAROLINA (last season: 16-2 ACC (tied for 1st), 29-7 overall)
No ACC team loses more from last season than the Tar Heels as UNC’s top 5 scorers are gone. But, as usual, UNC does not lack talent. The most crucial losses, however, came in the backcourt and raise a legitimate question of whether the Heels will be able to execute their helter-skelter, run-and-gun style.
The face of this season’s team belongs to incoming freshman point guard, Cole Anthony, one of the top recruits in the country. Anthony is a complete player and very likely a one-and-done. He could be joined in the backcourt by veteran Brandon Robinson, grad transfer Christian Keeling, or one of the other freshmen recruits, Anthony Harris or Jeremiah Francis. How this group plays will determine just how far the Tar Heels go this year.
The front court boasts both size and experience. Garrison Brooks returns, joined by fellow juniors Brandon Huffman and Sterling Manley, and highly-rated freshman Armondo Bacot. Coach Huckleberry Hound Dog, aka, Roy Williams, hopes that Leakey Black can realize some of the potential that he exhibited last season prior to getting injured and that wing Justin Pierce, a transfer from William & Mary, can add depth and experience to this squad. With the additions of the grad transfers and a freshman point guard, this is one of the most unlikely rosters Carolina has had in recent memory and it will challenge Williams’ ability to mold another top-25 team.
Returning players: Brandon Robinson, 6’5”, 170 lbs., G, Sr., 3.4 ppg, 46.0% 3-pt.; Garrison Brooks, 6’9”, 215 lbs., F, Jr., 7.9 ppg, 5.6 rpg; Brandon Huffman, 6’10”, 250 lbs., F, Jr., 1.1 ppg; Sterling Manley, 6’11”, 240 lbs., F, Jr., 3.5 ppg, 2.9 rpg; Andrew Platek, 6’3”, 195 lbs., G, Jr., 1.1 ppg; Rechon “Leaky” Black, 6’8”, 175 lbs., G, So., 2.5 ppg, 41.7% 3-pt.; K. J. Smith, PG, 1.0 ppg.
New players: Armondo Bacot, 6’10”, 240 lbs., PF (Rivals #27); Jeremiah Francis, 6’3”, 190 lbs., PG; Cole Anthony, 6’3”, PG (Rivals #4); Anthony Harris, 6’4”, 180 lbs. CG, (Rivals #76) (note: missed much of senior HS season with torn ACL); Christian Keeling, 6’4”, 175 lbs., SG, grad transfer from Charleston Southern where he averaged last season 18.7 ppg, 6.9 rpg, 38% 3pt., ; Justin Pierce, 6’7”, 215 lbs., F (grad transfer from William & Mary, 14.9 ppg, 8.9 rpg, 4.1 apg, 32.4% 3pt. last season.)
Departing players: Cam Johnson, 6’8”, 210 lbs., G, 16.9 ppg; 5.8 rpg, 2.4 apg, 1.2 spg, 45.7% 3-pt.; Luke Maye, 6’6”, 211 lbs., F, 14.9 ppg, 10.5 rpg, 2.3 apg; Kenny Williams, 6’4”, 185 lbs., G, 8.6 ppg, 3.9 rpg, 3.5 apg; Seventh Woods, 6’1”, 185 lbs., G, (transfer), 2.5 ppg, 40.0% 3-pt.; Nassir Little, 6’7”, 205 lbs, F, (declared for draft), 9.8 ppg, 4.6 rpg; Coby White, 6’4”, 170 lbs., G, (declared for draft), 16.1 ppg, 3.5 rpg, 4.1 apg, 1.1 spg, 35.3% 3-pt.
3. DUKE (last season: 14-4 ACC (3rd place), 32-6 overall)
Another top-rated class, a once-in-a decade player, 3 lottery picks … yet another season that Duke did not win the ACC regular-season title. That is a quick summary of last season’s Duke team. Duke is almost always picked to finish first in the ACC by most prognosticators (except for me), but hasn’t won a regular season title in 9 years and only one regular season title in the past 13 seasons (2010). Should we expect anything different this season?
This year’s edition of the Blue Devils has a better shot at finishing at the top as they return more players than they have in a long time, led by starting point guard Tre Jones, who wisely decided to stay in Durham another year to work on his shooting. Jones is a candidate for defensive player of the year and will be joined by a group of backup returnees who, along with Jones, would make this team at least a middle-of-the-pack ACC team. Alex O’Connell, Jack White, Javin DeLaurier and Jordan Goldwire have all played enough minutes to earn Coach Kryzqnrsghvnvhvhski’s trust. Highly rated Joey Baker, who inexplicably played a total of 18 minutes last season instead of redshirting, should have a chance to earn minutes this year.
Duke brings in another highly-ranked recruiting class, but this year’s group has a more traditional, old-school look to it. Vernon Carey, Jr. is a huge, back-to-the-basket prospect in the post that will be a chore for any team to stop. Perhaps the biggest sleeper recruit in this season’s class, if you can call the #9 recruit in the country a sleeper, is Matthew Hurt. Hurt may be the most offensively-gifted freshman in the country and can score inside and out. Paired with Carey, Jr., Hurt gives the Devils a front court that will challenge anyone. Wendall Moore and Cassius Stanley are wings that will compete with the returnees for playing time.
This is a deep Duke team and one that has enough to finally win the regular season ACC title in a down year for the league. However, the Devils lost 4 starters, 3 who were lottery picks. Additionally, while Coach K recruits great players, there is no consistency in the skills of these players that would lend itself to the Dukies playing the same systems offensively and defensively every year. This results in his returning players having to learn new schemes every year to fit the games of the one-and-done recruits that stop off in Durham. Thus, the usual inexperience will likely doom the Devils to another also-ran status in the conference regular season race.
Returning players: Tre Jones, 6’2”, 183 lbs., PG, 9.4 ppg, 3.8 rpg, 5.3 apg, 1.9 spg; Alex O’Connell, 6’6”, 183 lbs., G, 4.4 ppg; Jack White, 6’7”, 222 lbs., F, 4.1 ppg, 4.7 rpg, 1.1 bpg; Javin DeLaurier, 6’10”, 234 lbs., F, 3.8 ppg, 4.4 rpg, 1.3 bpg; Jordan Goldwire, 6’2”, 181 lbs., PG, 0.9 ppg, 0.6 apg; Joey Baker, 6’7”, 200 lbs., F, 0.8 ppg, 1.0 rpg.
New players: Vernon Carey, Jr., C, 6’11”, 275 lbs. (Rivals #5); Wendall Moore, SF, 6’6”, 215 lbs. (Rivals #24); Cassius Stanley, G, 6’5”, 185 lbs. (Rivals #39); Matthew Hurt, F, 6’8”, 214 lbs. (Rivals #9);
Departing players: R.J. Barrett, 6’7”, 202 lbs., F, 22.6 ppg, 7.6 rpg, 4.3 apg; Zion Williamson, 6’8”, 285 lbs., F, 22.6 ppg, 8.9 rpg, 2.1 apg, 2.1 spg, 1.8 bpg; Cam Reddish, 6’8”, 218 lbs., F, 13.5 ppg, 3.7 rpg, 1.6 spg; Marques Bolden, 6’11”, 250 lbs., C, 5.3 ppg, 4.5 rpg, 1.7 bpg; Antonio Vrankovic, 7’0”, 269 lbs., C, 1.4 ppg.
2. VIRGINIA (last season: 16-2 ACC (tied for 1st), 35-3 overall)
This selection feels like déjà vu all over again from 2 seasons ago when I thought that UVA was the team to beat in the ACC, but, selected Louisville because, on paper, the Cardinals appeared to be the deeper team. The Cavs won the league by 4 games that season after Louisville fired Rick Pitino shortly before the season opener. Yes, this is definitely a rebuilding year for the defending NCAA champions since the top 3 scorers left early to pursue their NBA dreams. But Tony Bennett has delivered on his promise to build a program that enjoys sustainable success, and he will keep the Wahoos in the championship hunt every year, both on the conference and national level. The devil is in the numbers as the Cavs sport a record of 66-6 over the past two seasons and have averaged close to 30 wins over the past 6 seasons (29.67 wins per year, to be more exact.) It’s time to accept that Virginia should never be overlooked to win the conference so long as Bennett is their coach.
Replacing 67% of the scoring from last season is a tall order, but the Hoos are not lacking the talent to pick up the scoring slack. It’s not that the returnees and newcomers can’t score – they just weren’t the primary scoring options last season. But, I’m getting ahead of myself here because, as always, any discussion of UVA starts with defense and the Wahoos are packing a powerful punch in that phase of the game this season. This could be UVA’s best rim-protecting team under Bennett as the Hoos return 3 experienced players inside who are well versed in the packline defense. The Hoos defense should keep them in every game and create nightmares for opposing offenses. Mamadi Diakite, Braxton Key and Jay Huff lead a formidable front line that should force opponents into difficult shots and long possessions. Out front, returning PG starter Kihei Clark will again press opponents full court and make it difficult for them to get into their set offenses. Two new pieces in the backcourt, Casey Morsell and Tomas Woldentensae, will be asked to master the packline defense in a hurry, but both have the necessary talents to do so. It won’t hurt that the frontline will have their backs to erase many of the mistakes that the two will naturally make. Morsell may be the most college-ready freshman that Tony Bennett has ever recruited to UVA. His physical build and 6’9” wingspan will play well in the packline. Woldentensae has desirable size (6’5”) and athleticism to defend the 1-3 in the backcourt. These 6 players will likely log the bulk of the minutes for Virginia this season.
The biggest unknown for Virginia this season is playable depth. Who will step up their games to give the Wahoos at least an 8-man rotation? The answer inside is likely redshirt 1st year, Francisco Caffaro, who will grab some of the minutes that Jack Salt provided against physical inside players. Caffaro showed this summer in FIBA play for Argentina that he can take the pounding that we saw inflicted by Wisconsin, Maryland and William & Mary centers last season in games when the referees allow big men to lower their shoulders and plow into the chest of defending centers in order to knock them off the blocks. The biggest issue for Caffaro will be stamina as he missed 7 months last season with a broken leg and still has a ways to go with his conditioning. On the perimeter, the likely answer, by default, is fellow-foreign player, Kody Stattmann. Stattmann has great length, good leaping ability for a wing, and a year in the packline under his belt. While he came to UVA with a reputation as a distance shooter, he has struggled so far from deep in his few attempts, but has shown an ability to get to the rack and score and/or draw fouls. Stattmann’s defense has improved greatly since last season, but he still needs improvement on that side of the ball. The good news for now is that Kody won’t be asked to shoulder a large load on either end of the floor, but instead, give the Hoos some solid minutes in relief of his fellow backcourt mates. And, as is the case with the newcomers in the backcourt, he’ll have shot erasers behind him to help with his mistakes. The remaining 3 roster players with eligibility this season are Frankie Badocchi, Justin McKoy, and Kadin Shedrick. Shedrick will almost certainly redshirt, both because he needs to add muscle to his 6’11”, 200 lbs. frame and because his position is the deepest on the roster. Badocchi and McKoy are simply unknowns. Badocchi probably has the best chance of cracking the rotation as this is his 3rd season in the program. McKoy could probably use a redshirt year, but Bennett likes to have at least 10 active players on the roster, so, like Stattmann last season, McKoy will probably not redshirt and will be a long shot to crack the rotation until he demonstrates that he can handle matters on the defensive end of the floor.
The second biggest question for the Hoos this season is “who will pick up the scoring slack?” Most players coached by Bennett’s staff improve annually in all phase of their games, so look for Key, Diakite and Huff to carry much of the scoring load this season. Additionally, Woldentensae comes in having made a very high-percentage of his three-pointers (47.6%) in a large sample size of 210 attempts last season. Morsell can score in a variety of ways. So, while this season’s team will likely grind out offensive possessions even more so than last year (close your eyes, Steven A. Smith!), they should still be able to maintain an efficient offensive rating. Both first-team All-American JC Tomas Woldentensae and Casey Morsell will provide backup minutes at point guard when Clark is not on the floor. By not taking just any grad transfer as a point guard backup, Bennett has shown his confidence that at least one of these 2 players can handle that role.
In most seasons, this year’s edition of the Hoos would be looking at a dropoff of at least a few places in the standings because of their personnel losses. But all of last season’s other top 4 teams (UNC, Duke, & Fla. St.) lost as many or more of their top players and none of the lesser teams, save Louisville and N.C. State, have done much to improve their rosters. So, look for the Hoos to once again challenge for ACC supremacy.
Returning players: Braxton Key, 6’8”, 225 lbs., F, Sr., 5.7 ppg, 5.3 rpg, 30.5% 3-pt.; Mamadi Diakite, 6’9”, 228 lbs., C/PF, RS Sr., 7.4 ppg. 4.4 rpg, 1.7 bpg, 29.4% 3-pt,; Jay Huff, 7’1”, C, 232 lbs., RS Jr., 4.4 ppg, 2.1 rpg, 45.2% 3-pt.; Kihei Clark, 5’9”, 155 lbs., PG, So., 4.5 ppg, 2.6 apg, 34.1% 3-pt.; Frankie Badocchi, 6’7”, 205 lbs., F, RS So., 0.5 ppg; Francisco Caffaro, 7’0”, 233 lbs., C, RS Fr., ; Kody Stattmann, 6’7”, 187 lbs., G, So., 1.7 ppg, 26.7% 3-pt.
New players: Casey Morsell, 6’3”, 190 lbs., CG (Rivals #49); Kadin Shedrick, 6’11”, 200 lbs., PF (Rivals #63); Justin McKoy, 6’8”, 225 lbs., F; Tomas Woldentensae, 6’5”, 195 lbs., CG, JC transfer from Indian Hills, CC (JC All-American), 47.6% 3 pt.; Chase Coleman, 5’9”, 150 lbs., PG (preferred walk-on).
Departing players: Ty Jerome, 6’5”, 200 lbs., PG, 13.6 ppg, 4.2 rpg, 5.5 apg, 1.5 spg, 39.9% 3-pt.; Kyle Guy, 6’2”, 175 lbs., SG, 15.4 ppg, 4.5 rpg, 2.1 apg, 42.6% 3-pt.; DeAndre Hunter, 6’7”, 222 lbs., F, 15.2 ppg, 5.1 rpg, 2.0 apg, 43.8% 3-pt.; Jack Salt, 6’10”, 250 lbs., C, 3.7 ppg, 3.7 rpg; Marco Anthony, 6’6”, 220 lbs., SF, 1.2 ppg (transfer). Note: 59.65% of UVA shots last year were attempted by the big 3.
1. LOUISVILLE (last season: 10-8 ACC (tied for 6th), 20-14 overall)
Jumping from a 10-8 season in the ACC to conference regular season champs in one season might seem like a huge leap absent a nationally, top-rated recruiting class, but the ACC lost a tremendous amount of talent this past season to the NBA and graduation. Enter Louisville – the team with the deepest returning group that will be joined by a very nice recruiting class to give second-year coach Chris Mack the team-to-beat in the ACC this year.
Louisville appears to have it all, on paper: a star player in Jordan Nwora, returnees at every position, an excellent grad transfer at point guard in Lamaar Kimble, size, speed, shooters, and 12 players that will all have a chance to crack the rotation. The biggest challenge for Mack will be to build this group into a tougher, cohesive unit and a confident team that can shake off the memories of last season’s multiple second-half fadeouts. That challenge should be easier as Mack has a core of 6 returnees that now have a season of his schemes under their belts. Adding Kimble and 5 freshmen who are all rated in Rivals’ top 108 players has put Mack in an enviable position this season of having a roster that is versatile and matches up well with any conference team.
If Louisville does not win the ACC regular season title this year, it will likely be because Mack is unable to stop Louisville’s long time nemesis – Tony Bennett and the Cavaliers of Virginia.
Returning Players: Steven Enoch, 6’10”, 250lbs., C, Sr., 9.4 ppg, 5.2 rpg, 35.9% 3pt.; Dwayne Sutton, 6’5”, 200 lbs., F, Sr., 10. ppg, 6.9 rpg; Ryan McMahon, 6’0”, 170 lbs., G, Sr., 7.2 ppg, 35.3% 3pt.; Darius Perry, 6’2”, 170 lbs., G, Jr., 5.4 ppg, 37.5% 3pt.; Malik Williams, 6’11”, 215 lbs., F/C, Jr., 7.7 ppg, 6.1 rpg, 1.2 bpg; Jordan Nwora, 6’8”, 215 lbs., F, Jr., 17.0 ppg, 7.6 rpg, 37.4 % 3pt.
New Players: Josh Nickelberry, 6’4”, 175 lbs., SG (Rivals #100); Lamaar Kimble, 6’0”, 185 lbs., G, grad transfer from St. Joseph’s, at St. Joe’s last year: 15.6 ppg, 2.8 apg, 29.2 % 3-pt. (2 years of eligibility left); Samuell Williamson, SG, (Rivals #19); Aidan Igiehorn, PF (Rivals #54); David Johnson, SG (Rivals #108); Jaelyn Withers, SF (Rivals #103).
Departing Players: Akoy Agau, 6’8”, 235 lbs. F, 1.6 ppg, 2.0 rpg; Christen Cunningham, 6’2”, 190 lbs., G, 10.1 ppg, 4.8 apg; Khwan Fore, 6’0”, 175 lbs., G, 3.3 ppg; V.J. King, 6’6”, 190 lbs., G/F (transfer), 3.9 ppg, 3.0 rpg.
Tier 1: The top shelf: places 1-5
5. N.C. STATE (last season: 9-9 ACC (tied for 8th); 24-12 overall)
Kevin Keatts’ program has made steady progress since he took over in Raleigh and this year’s addition of the Pack looks to be his best and most-experienced to date. N.C. State is loaded in the backcourt as C. J. Bryce, Markell Johnson, Braxton Beverly, Devon Daniels, and Blake Harris return to form the deepest and most-experienced guard group in the league.
Inside play will likely determine just how far this team goes this year. D. J. Funderburk showed promise in the post last season and he’ll be joined by some immediately eligible veterans in the frontcourt, led by Lehigh grad transfer Pat Andree. This is a deep Wolfpack team and could be one of the league’s biggest surprises if Keatts can get solid inside play and get his team playing good defense and team basketball.
Returning Players: C. J. Bryce, 6’5”, 195 lbs., G, Sr., 11.6 ppg, 4.6 rpg, 34.5% 3-pt.; Markell Johnson, 6’1”, 175 lbs., PG, Sr., 12.6 ppg, 4.2 apg, 42.2% 3-pt.; Braxton Beverly, 6’0”, 180 lbs., G, Jr., 9.4 ppg, 2.5 apg, 34.7% 3-pt.; Devon Daniels, 6’5”, 200 lbs., G, Jr., 9.3 ppg, 4.4 rpg; Blake Harris, 6’3”, 190 lbs., G, Jr., 3.1 ppg, 42.1% 3-pt.; D. J. Funderburk, 6’10”, 210 lbs., F, Jr., 8.8 ppg, 4.2 rpg, 1.1 bpg; Manny Bates, 6’11”, 221 lbs, F/C, RS Fr., ; Jericole Hellems, 6’7”, 198 lbs., F, So., 5.3 ppg.
New Players: Dareon Seabron, 6’6”, 190 lbs., SG, (Rivals #124); Pat Andree, 6’8”, 225 lbs., PF, (grad transfer from Lehigh, 12.9 ppg, 6.2 rpg, 41.9% 3pt.); Danny Dixon, 6’10”, 230 lbs., grad transfer from UKMC, 7.5 ppg, 3.6 rpg; Atticus Taylor, 6’7”, 205 lbs., So., JUCO transfer, 9.0 ppg, 7.4 rpg.
Departing Players: Torin Dorn, 6’5”, 210 lbs., G/F, 14.0 ppg, 7.2 rpg; Eric Lockett, 6’5”, 193 lbs., G, 4.4 ppg, 42.3% 3-pt.; Wyatt Walker, 6’7”, 240 lbs., F/C, 4.8 ppg, 4.5 rpg (decided to forego final season.)
4. NORTH CAROLINA (last season: 16-2 ACC (tied for 1st), 29-7 overall)
No ACC team loses more from last season than the Tar Heels as UNC’s top 5 scorers are gone. But, as usual, UNC does not lack talent. The most crucial losses, however, came in the backcourt and raise a legitimate question of whether the Heels will be able to execute their helter-skelter, run-and-gun style.
The face of this season’s team belongs to incoming freshman point guard, Cole Anthony, one of the top recruits in the country. Anthony is a complete player and very likely a one-and-done. He could be joined in the backcourt by veteran Brandon Robinson, grad transfer Christian Keeling, or one of the other freshmen recruits, Anthony Harris or Jeremiah Francis. How this group plays will determine just how far the Tar Heels go this year.
The front court boasts both size and experience. Garrison Brooks returns, joined by fellow juniors Brandon Huffman and Sterling Manley, and highly-rated freshman Armondo Bacot. Coach Huckleberry Hound Dog, aka, Roy Williams, hopes that Leakey Black can realize some of the potential that he exhibited last season prior to getting injured and that wing Justin Pierce, a transfer from William & Mary, can add depth and experience to this squad. With the additions of the grad transfers and a freshman point guard, this is one of the most unlikely rosters Carolina has had in recent memory and it will challenge Williams’ ability to mold another top-25 team.
Returning players: Brandon Robinson, 6’5”, 170 lbs., G, Sr., 3.4 ppg, 46.0% 3-pt.; Garrison Brooks, 6’9”, 215 lbs., F, Jr., 7.9 ppg, 5.6 rpg; Brandon Huffman, 6’10”, 250 lbs., F, Jr., 1.1 ppg; Sterling Manley, 6’11”, 240 lbs., F, Jr., 3.5 ppg, 2.9 rpg; Andrew Platek, 6’3”, 195 lbs., G, Jr., 1.1 ppg; Rechon “Leaky” Black, 6’8”, 175 lbs., G, So., 2.5 ppg, 41.7% 3-pt.; K. J. Smith, PG, 1.0 ppg.
New players: Armondo Bacot, 6’10”, 240 lbs., PF (Rivals #27); Jeremiah Francis, 6’3”, 190 lbs., PG; Cole Anthony, 6’3”, PG (Rivals #4); Anthony Harris, 6’4”, 180 lbs. CG, (Rivals #76) (note: missed much of senior HS season with torn ACL); Christian Keeling, 6’4”, 175 lbs., SG, grad transfer from Charleston Southern where he averaged last season 18.7 ppg, 6.9 rpg, 38% 3pt., ; Justin Pierce, 6’7”, 215 lbs., F (grad transfer from William & Mary, 14.9 ppg, 8.9 rpg, 4.1 apg, 32.4% 3pt. last season.)
Departing players: Cam Johnson, 6’8”, 210 lbs., G, 16.9 ppg; 5.8 rpg, 2.4 apg, 1.2 spg, 45.7% 3-pt.; Luke Maye, 6’6”, 211 lbs., F, 14.9 ppg, 10.5 rpg, 2.3 apg; Kenny Williams, 6’4”, 185 lbs., G, 8.6 ppg, 3.9 rpg, 3.5 apg; Seventh Woods, 6’1”, 185 lbs., G, (transfer), 2.5 ppg, 40.0% 3-pt.; Nassir Little, 6’7”, 205 lbs, F, (declared for draft), 9.8 ppg, 4.6 rpg; Coby White, 6’4”, 170 lbs., G, (declared for draft), 16.1 ppg, 3.5 rpg, 4.1 apg, 1.1 spg, 35.3% 3-pt.
3. DUKE (last season: 14-4 ACC (3rd place), 32-6 overall)
Another top-rated class, a once-in-a decade player, 3 lottery picks … yet another season that Duke did not win the ACC regular-season title. That is a quick summary of last season’s Duke team. Duke is almost always picked to finish first in the ACC by most prognosticators (except for me), but hasn’t won a regular season title in 9 years and only one regular season title in the past 13 seasons (2010). Should we expect anything different this season?
This year’s edition of the Blue Devils has a better shot at finishing at the top as they return more players than they have in a long time, led by starting point guard Tre Jones, who wisely decided to stay in Durham another year to work on his shooting. Jones is a candidate for defensive player of the year and will be joined by a group of backup returnees who, along with Jones, would make this team at least a middle-of-the-pack ACC team. Alex O’Connell, Jack White, Javin DeLaurier and Jordan Goldwire have all played enough minutes to earn Coach Kryzqnrsghvnvhvhski’s trust. Highly rated Joey Baker, who inexplicably played a total of 18 minutes last season instead of redshirting, should have a chance to earn minutes this year.
Duke brings in another highly-ranked recruiting class, but this year’s group has a more traditional, old-school look to it. Vernon Carey, Jr. is a huge, back-to-the-basket prospect in the post that will be a chore for any team to stop. Perhaps the biggest sleeper recruit in this season’s class, if you can call the #9 recruit in the country a sleeper, is Matthew Hurt. Hurt may be the most offensively-gifted freshman in the country and can score inside and out. Paired with Carey, Jr., Hurt gives the Devils a front court that will challenge anyone. Wendall Moore and Cassius Stanley are wings that will compete with the returnees for playing time.
This is a deep Duke team and one that has enough to finally win the regular season ACC title in a down year for the league. However, the Devils lost 4 starters, 3 who were lottery picks. Additionally, while Coach K recruits great players, there is no consistency in the skills of these players that would lend itself to the Dukies playing the same systems offensively and defensively every year. This results in his returning players having to learn new schemes every year to fit the games of the one-and-done recruits that stop off in Durham. Thus, the usual inexperience will likely doom the Devils to another also-ran status in the conference regular season race.
Returning players: Tre Jones, 6’2”, 183 lbs., PG, 9.4 ppg, 3.8 rpg, 5.3 apg, 1.9 spg; Alex O’Connell, 6’6”, 183 lbs., G, 4.4 ppg; Jack White, 6’7”, 222 lbs., F, 4.1 ppg, 4.7 rpg, 1.1 bpg; Javin DeLaurier, 6’10”, 234 lbs., F, 3.8 ppg, 4.4 rpg, 1.3 bpg; Jordan Goldwire, 6’2”, 181 lbs., PG, 0.9 ppg, 0.6 apg; Joey Baker, 6’7”, 200 lbs., F, 0.8 ppg, 1.0 rpg.
New players: Vernon Carey, Jr., C, 6’11”, 275 lbs. (Rivals #5); Wendall Moore, SF, 6’6”, 215 lbs. (Rivals #24); Cassius Stanley, G, 6’5”, 185 lbs. (Rivals #39); Matthew Hurt, F, 6’8”, 214 lbs. (Rivals #9);
Departing players: R.J. Barrett, 6’7”, 202 lbs., F, 22.6 ppg, 7.6 rpg, 4.3 apg; Zion Williamson, 6’8”, 285 lbs., F, 22.6 ppg, 8.9 rpg, 2.1 apg, 2.1 spg, 1.8 bpg; Cam Reddish, 6’8”, 218 lbs., F, 13.5 ppg, 3.7 rpg, 1.6 spg; Marques Bolden, 6’11”, 250 lbs., C, 5.3 ppg, 4.5 rpg, 1.7 bpg; Antonio Vrankovic, 7’0”, 269 lbs., C, 1.4 ppg.
2. VIRGINIA (last season: 16-2 ACC (tied for 1st), 35-3 overall)
This selection feels like déjà vu all over again from 2 seasons ago when I thought that UVA was the team to beat in the ACC, but, selected Louisville because, on paper, the Cardinals appeared to be the deeper team. The Cavs won the league by 4 games that season after Louisville fired Rick Pitino shortly before the season opener. Yes, this is definitely a rebuilding year for the defending NCAA champions since the top 3 scorers left early to pursue their NBA dreams. But Tony Bennett has delivered on his promise to build a program that enjoys sustainable success, and he will keep the Wahoos in the championship hunt every year, both on the conference and national level. The devil is in the numbers as the Cavs sport a record of 66-6 over the past two seasons and have averaged close to 30 wins over the past 6 seasons (29.67 wins per year, to be more exact.) It’s time to accept that Virginia should never be overlooked to win the conference so long as Bennett is their coach.
Replacing 67% of the scoring from last season is a tall order, but the Hoos are not lacking the talent to pick up the scoring slack. It’s not that the returnees and newcomers can’t score – they just weren’t the primary scoring options last season. But, I’m getting ahead of myself here because, as always, any discussion of UVA starts with defense and the Wahoos are packing a powerful punch in that phase of the game this season. This could be UVA’s best rim-protecting team under Bennett as the Hoos return 3 experienced players inside who are well versed in the packline defense. The Hoos defense should keep them in every game and create nightmares for opposing offenses. Mamadi Diakite, Braxton Key and Jay Huff lead a formidable front line that should force opponents into difficult shots and long possessions. Out front, returning PG starter Kihei Clark will again press opponents full court and make it difficult for them to get into their set offenses. Two new pieces in the backcourt, Casey Morsell and Tomas Woldentensae, will be asked to master the packline defense in a hurry, but both have the necessary talents to do so. It won’t hurt that the frontline will have their backs to erase many of the mistakes that the two will naturally make. Morsell may be the most college-ready freshman that Tony Bennett has ever recruited to UVA. His physical build and 6’9” wingspan will play well in the packline. Woldentensae has desirable size (6’5”) and athleticism to defend the 1-3 in the backcourt. These 6 players will likely log the bulk of the minutes for Virginia this season.
The biggest unknown for Virginia this season is playable depth. Who will step up their games to give the Wahoos at least an 8-man rotation? The answer inside is likely redshirt 1st year, Francisco Caffaro, who will grab some of the minutes that Jack Salt provided against physical inside players. Caffaro showed this summer in FIBA play for Argentina that he can take the pounding that we saw inflicted by Wisconsin, Maryland and William & Mary centers last season in games when the referees allow big men to lower their shoulders and plow into the chest of defending centers in order to knock them off the blocks. The biggest issue for Caffaro will be stamina as he missed 7 months last season with a broken leg and still has a ways to go with his conditioning. On the perimeter, the likely answer, by default, is fellow-foreign player, Kody Stattmann. Stattmann has great length, good leaping ability for a wing, and a year in the packline under his belt. While he came to UVA with a reputation as a distance shooter, he has struggled so far from deep in his few attempts, but has shown an ability to get to the rack and score and/or draw fouls. Stattmann’s defense has improved greatly since last season, but he still needs improvement on that side of the ball. The good news for now is that Kody won’t be asked to shoulder a large load on either end of the floor, but instead, give the Hoos some solid minutes in relief of his fellow backcourt mates. And, as is the case with the newcomers in the backcourt, he’ll have shot erasers behind him to help with his mistakes. The remaining 3 roster players with eligibility this season are Frankie Badocchi, Justin McKoy, and Kadin Shedrick. Shedrick will almost certainly redshirt, both because he needs to add muscle to his 6’11”, 200 lbs. frame and because his position is the deepest on the roster. Badocchi and McKoy are simply unknowns. Badocchi probably has the best chance of cracking the rotation as this is his 3rd season in the program. McKoy could probably use a redshirt year, but Bennett likes to have at least 10 active players on the roster, so, like Stattmann last season, McKoy will probably not redshirt and will be a long shot to crack the rotation until he demonstrates that he can handle matters on the defensive end of the floor.
The second biggest question for the Hoos this season is “who will pick up the scoring slack?” Most players coached by Bennett’s staff improve annually in all phase of their games, so look for Key, Diakite and Huff to carry much of the scoring load this season. Additionally, Woldentensae comes in having made a very high-percentage of his three-pointers (47.6%) in a large sample size of 210 attempts last season. Morsell can score in a variety of ways. So, while this season’s team will likely grind out offensive possessions even more so than last year (close your eyes, Steven A. Smith!), they should still be able to maintain an efficient offensive rating. Both first-team All-American JC Tomas Woldentensae and Casey Morsell will provide backup minutes at point guard when Clark is not on the floor. By not taking just any grad transfer as a point guard backup, Bennett has shown his confidence that at least one of these 2 players can handle that role.
In most seasons, this year’s edition of the Hoos would be looking at a dropoff of at least a few places in the standings because of their personnel losses. But all of last season’s other top 4 teams (UNC, Duke, & Fla. St.) lost as many or more of their top players and none of the lesser teams, save Louisville and N.C. State, have done much to improve their rosters. So, look for the Hoos to once again challenge for ACC supremacy.
Returning players: Braxton Key, 6’8”, 225 lbs., F, Sr., 5.7 ppg, 5.3 rpg, 30.5% 3-pt.; Mamadi Diakite, 6’9”, 228 lbs., C/PF, RS Sr., 7.4 ppg. 4.4 rpg, 1.7 bpg, 29.4% 3-pt,; Jay Huff, 7’1”, C, 232 lbs., RS Jr., 4.4 ppg, 2.1 rpg, 45.2% 3-pt.; Kihei Clark, 5’9”, 155 lbs., PG, So., 4.5 ppg, 2.6 apg, 34.1% 3-pt.; Frankie Badocchi, 6’7”, 205 lbs., F, RS So., 0.5 ppg; Francisco Caffaro, 7’0”, 233 lbs., C, RS Fr., ; Kody Stattmann, 6’7”, 187 lbs., G, So., 1.7 ppg, 26.7% 3-pt.
New players: Casey Morsell, 6’3”, 190 lbs., CG (Rivals #49); Kadin Shedrick, 6’11”, 200 lbs., PF (Rivals #63); Justin McKoy, 6’8”, 225 lbs., F; Tomas Woldentensae, 6’5”, 195 lbs., CG, JC transfer from Indian Hills, CC (JC All-American), 47.6% 3 pt.; Chase Coleman, 5’9”, 150 lbs., PG (preferred walk-on).
Departing players: Ty Jerome, 6’5”, 200 lbs., PG, 13.6 ppg, 4.2 rpg, 5.5 apg, 1.5 spg, 39.9% 3-pt.; Kyle Guy, 6’2”, 175 lbs., SG, 15.4 ppg, 4.5 rpg, 2.1 apg, 42.6% 3-pt.; DeAndre Hunter, 6’7”, 222 lbs., F, 15.2 ppg, 5.1 rpg, 2.0 apg, 43.8% 3-pt.; Jack Salt, 6’10”, 250 lbs., C, 3.7 ppg, 3.7 rpg; Marco Anthony, 6’6”, 220 lbs., SF, 1.2 ppg (transfer). Note: 59.65% of UVA shots last year were attempted by the big 3.
1. LOUISVILLE (last season: 10-8 ACC (tied for 6th), 20-14 overall)
Jumping from a 10-8 season in the ACC to conference regular season champs in one season might seem like a huge leap absent a nationally, top-rated recruiting class, but the ACC lost a tremendous amount of talent this past season to the NBA and graduation. Enter Louisville – the team with the deepest returning group that will be joined by a very nice recruiting class to give second-year coach Chris Mack the team-to-beat in the ACC this year.
Louisville appears to have it all, on paper: a star player in Jordan Nwora, returnees at every position, an excellent grad transfer at point guard in Lamaar Kimble, size, speed, shooters, and 12 players that will all have a chance to crack the rotation. The biggest challenge for Mack will be to build this group into a tougher, cohesive unit and a confident team that can shake off the memories of last season’s multiple second-half fadeouts. That challenge should be easier as Mack has a core of 6 returnees that now have a season of his schemes under their belts. Adding Kimble and 5 freshmen who are all rated in Rivals’ top 108 players has put Mack in an enviable position this season of having a roster that is versatile and matches up well with any conference team.
If Louisville does not win the ACC regular season title this year, it will likely be because Mack is unable to stop Louisville’s long time nemesis – Tony Bennett and the Cavaliers of Virginia.
Returning Players: Steven Enoch, 6’10”, 250lbs., C, Sr., 9.4 ppg, 5.2 rpg, 35.9% 3pt.; Dwayne Sutton, 6’5”, 200 lbs., F, Sr., 10. ppg, 6.9 rpg; Ryan McMahon, 6’0”, 170 lbs., G, Sr., 7.2 ppg, 35.3% 3pt.; Darius Perry, 6’2”, 170 lbs., G, Jr., 5.4 ppg, 37.5% 3pt.; Malik Williams, 6’11”, 215 lbs., F/C, Jr., 7.7 ppg, 6.1 rpg, 1.2 bpg; Jordan Nwora, 6’8”, 215 lbs., F, Jr., 17.0 ppg, 7.6 rpg, 37.4 % 3pt.
New Players: Josh Nickelberry, 6’4”, 175 lbs., SG (Rivals #100); Lamaar Kimble, 6’0”, 185 lbs., G, grad transfer from St. Joseph’s, at St. Joe’s last year: 15.6 ppg, 2.8 apg, 29.2 % 3-pt. (2 years of eligibility left); Samuell Williamson, SG, (Rivals #19); Aidan Igiehorn, PF (Rivals #54); David Johnson, SG (Rivals #108); Jaelyn Withers, SF (Rivals #103).
Departing Players: Akoy Agau, 6’8”, 235 lbs. F, 1.6 ppg, 2.0 rpg; Christen Cunningham, 6’2”, 190 lbs., G, 10.1 ppg, 4.8 apg; Khwan Fore, 6’0”, 175 lbs., G, 3.3 ppg; V.J. King, 6’6”, 190 lbs., G/F (transfer), 3.9 ppg, 3.0 rpg.
