Listening to podcast and I differ with the esteemed hosts that the toughest part of the schedule is what remains. (I also differ that the offense is getting better – maybe the timing on the routes is better but that's offset by a running game that's less threatening and the continued plague of turnovers…but that’s not the point of this thread!)
UVA’s already played two top 20 teams. They have one top 25 left to play and four games in a row at home. Syracuse and Illinois are solid Top 25 teams and Louisville and Duke are better than many give them credit for. UNC is a shaky Top 25 team, at best; Miami hasn’t lived up to the hype; and Coastal Carolina and the Hokies are no better than ODU.
I took I look at ESPN’s Power Index rankings and it confirmed this feeling. Here’s the ESPN PI rankings for the completed games:
Rich N/A
Ill 34
ODU 92
Syr 18
Duke 59
Lous 38
GT 89
The average ranking for the last six games is 55.
And here’s the rankings for who’s left:
Miami 57
UNC 40
Pitt 45
CC 85
VT 96
The average ranking for the remainder of the season is 65. UVA is ranked 78th. I realize rankings are what they are and must be taken with a grain of salt. But we’re past the hallway point in the season so they’re more reliable now, than they were in late August.
The next three games will be tough but they are at home, so that helps. The last two games are very winnable. Going up to Syracuse and playing in the dome was probably the toughest game they’ll have this season. If they beat Miami Saturday, then bowl eligibility is very much an opportunity that’s still in play for them. (If they lose Saturday, then there’s not much left to cheer for this year and I’m going to focus on the basketball season and playoffs for the Olympic sports teams.)
Offensive issues aside, I don't think a lot fans are recognizing the strength of the schedule that's been played and fear UNC, Pitt, and Miami more for their brand than their actual performance on the field this year. If the rankings are to be believed then 2-3 is how they'll finish the year. Likely getting their last home win in a very empty Scott Stadium.
UVA’s already played two top 20 teams. They have one top 25 left to play and four games in a row at home. Syracuse and Illinois are solid Top 25 teams and Louisville and Duke are better than many give them credit for. UNC is a shaky Top 25 team, at best; Miami hasn’t lived up to the hype; and Coastal Carolina and the Hokies are no better than ODU.
I took I look at ESPN’s Power Index rankings and it confirmed this feeling. Here’s the ESPN PI rankings for the completed games:
Rich N/A
Ill 34
ODU 92
Syr 18
Duke 59
Lous 38
GT 89
The average ranking for the last six games is 55.
And here’s the rankings for who’s left:
Miami 57
UNC 40
Pitt 45
CC 85
VT 96
The average ranking for the remainder of the season is 65. UVA is ranked 78th. I realize rankings are what they are and must be taken with a grain of salt. But we’re past the hallway point in the season so they’re more reliable now, than they were in late August.
The next three games will be tough but they are at home, so that helps. The last two games are very winnable. Going up to Syracuse and playing in the dome was probably the toughest game they’ll have this season. If they beat Miami Saturday, then bowl eligibility is very much an opportunity that’s still in play for them. (If they lose Saturday, then there’s not much left to cheer for this year and I’m going to focus on the basketball season and playoffs for the Olympic sports teams.)
Offensive issues aside, I don't think a lot fans are recognizing the strength of the schedule that's been played and fear UNC, Pitt, and Miami more for their brand than their actual performance on the field this year. If the rankings are to be believed then 2-3 is how they'll finish the year. Likely getting their last home win in a very empty Scott Stadium.
