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A different perspective on our problems

I don't even necessarily think this is the truth, but it is one theory I had after watching the game tonight. Could it be that all of our issues boil down to one person: Malcolm. I know a lot of people want to blame the sophomores or chemistry, but hear me out. This road losing streak has coincided with his poor shooting streak. It seems that since he has been shooting poorly he has been trying to force his own shot. How many times has he pulled up for a contested jumper, even though he isn't a good jump shooter off the dribble? Not only that, but he continually dribbles the shot clock down in what seems to be outside the flow of the offense. When a player is playing like this, it is only human nature for the others to put a little less effort into setting picks and running off those picks. Given the precision required for this blocker mover offense, even a small decrease in effort greatly inhibits our ability to create in the half court. While the defense may just not have the pieces this year, I think the offense has a simple solution. Malcolm needs to get out of his shooting slump and start playing within the offense. And when he does decide to be the man, he needs to do it by driving rather than settling for contested jump shots.
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Recruiting Shooters

I know we have tried and TB thought EN would be that guy, but other than LP I would just pack the paint and dare other guys to shoot.

Maybe MS heathly can be that guy, but the lack of a guy who can make teams pay when wide open is killing TB clubs. I know Guy is that kid, but it's a year too late. That type of kid on this team has us at the very least 1 loss.

Since we don't have that shooter right now, Tony really needs to give up some of his coaching philosophy and let us run in transition. That way we can free up guys to get open looks without a set defense since no one other than one guy can hurt you in a half court set from 3 (LP).

The board once again needs a reality check...

We were ranked 13 this week. Lets look at how the other top 20 teams fared...

1. Kansas lost @WVU
3. Maryland lost @Michigan
4. Mich St. lost against Iowa AND @Wisc
8. Miami lost @UVA AND @Clem
9. Duke lost @Clem AND ND
10. SMU is barred from the tourney
11. WVU lost @Okl
12. Providence lost to Seton Hall
14. Kentucky lost @Auburn
17. Iowa St. lost @Texas
19. South Carolina lost @Alabama
20. Pitt lost @L'ville

And yet, despite the fact that we beat #8 this week, our fan base is jumping off a cliff. Some are saying we won't even make the tourney.

I don't know if you guys have set your expectations too high for this team, or whether you are just that jaded from our football team, but seriously, I'm getting sick of this board overreacting to every single loss like its the end of the world.

For the record, this is as polite as I could possible make this post. I was thinking about titling it "Our fan base sucks" and going from there...

Just STOP with the not making the tournament talk ...

Yes, I am the poster that Arden originally blasted for saying 9-9 ACC was possible and that now appears a more realistic possibility (although if we don't manage an ACC road win, then 8-10 is likely more realistic with a home loss to UNC). Hopefully we start putting it together on the road and I actually think last night was a step in the right direction, but, unfortunately, the difficulty level also goes up.

That said, 9-9 in the ACC gets us in the dance because that would be 9-9/20-10 and even a first round loss in the ACCT (dropping us to 20-11) would be to someone like Miami, Notre Dame or FSU who is also going to be in the hunt for the tournament (and top 50ish). We would still be ranked somewhere around 25th in the RPI if we go 9-9 in the ACC. Heck, 8-10 is probably enough. I would not want to see the deliberations if we fall to, say 7-11, but with an ACC that people are starting to say might get 10 teams in, it's not impossible. We've already put a lot of hay in the barn, folks.

Think about it ... we are still ranked TENTH in the RPI. That's why Lunardi still has us as a three-seed. We are 5-2 against the top 50 and 3-0 against the top 25. We are 4-0 in neutral court games, including the one over #12 WVU. Now that VT has climbed into the top 100, we do NOT have a loss outside of the top 100. We are 13-4 against a schedule that is ranked 31 out of 345 teams and will likely only climb as we have 6 more games against current top 25 teams and only 1.5 games outside of the top 100 (BC is 195, but NC State is barely outside of the top 100 at 105). I know these numbers will move, but probably not a ton given that we are 15-20 games into the season for most teams. After beating us, FSU moves into the top 50, so that is not a terrible loss on the road either.

To put this in perspective ...
Maryland has ZERO top 50 RPI wins. Anywhere. Still amazing considering this stage of the season.
Duke has ONE top 50 win. Anywhere. #47 Indiana at home. Super impressive.
Arizona has one top 50 win (@#44ASU).
Louisville is 1-3 on the road and has only beaten one top 50 team total (Pitt).
Michigan State has no road win ranked above #89 (Penn St).
Miami has two road wins -- #170 Nebraska and #226 LaSalle, and has lost to #95 Northeastern at home.
Oregon is #7 in the RPI and has one road win.
Even Carolina lost to #136 on the road.

We need to beat VT, BC, and NC State at home and then scratch out 4-6 in the remaining 10 (as any "bad" home loss to a Cuse/Clemson would be offset by a good win over a top 25ish team, likely on the road ... sweeping VT/BC/State/Cuse/Clemson at home would mean zero bad home losses). Of course, with our luck, we will go 9-9 in the ACC, make the NCAA tournament as a six seed and then see Michigan State in the second round as a three seed.
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Rewatched our last 3 losses

Because we don't have school today, I'm a basketball coach so I'm always trying to pick apart things and I really needed to sit down and re-watch these games because some similarities are rearing their ugly heads.

Teams are spreading us out. Shooters in the corners, pick and roll to open up the middle. Our lack of a defensive guard or a post with the quickness to push guards out like years past is not only apparent when you watch games, but I'm sure other coaches have picked this up. It's not like teams are running complex stuff against us. They put athletes on the floor and have other shooters around them hoping that those guys can knock down a few momentum three's (GT, Tech and Wake).

Giving up offensive rebounds at the worst time- some of this has to do with effort, some of this has to do with digging ourselves so much of a hole it looks like we are tired at the end of the contest. Fundamentally guys are not boxing out, instead we're looking to run which is never good until you get the rebound first.

Our offense looks more NBA than college-

The thing I've been impressed with the last few years is how college basketball our offense looks. Now maybe Tony has gotten the idea for future years we need to run more pick and roll like in the pros, but we don't have the personnel this year or the athletes where that's going to work. As soon as teams get up six or eight we start relying on one-on-one basketball too much which gets us down even more in a second.

We stop going to AG-

Look at the games we won and look at the games we lost. Even when down a few possessions this team somehow forgets that we have a guy with the block who when one on one no team can stop. Granted we miss layups, but I said this early in the season, we are an inside/out team, not the other way around.

Toughness-

Why are we always the team when things aren't going well backing away from contact vs. giving it back? This would've never happened in the last few seasons, but for some reason this team is trying to rely on finesse versus toughness which teams especially on the road are taking advantage of in key stretches.

We really need to do the exact opposite of what we've been doing. Try to be more of a defensive oriented club at home where the crowd will pick us up energy wise and simply try to get out in transition scoring 10 to 20 points a game that way on the road. Great coaches adjust to the personnel they have at the time not their own personal philosophy. That is what makes Izzo and Coach K amazing coaches. They adjust to the personnel not their own philosophy of basketball and tend to make both of those things together work as one.

Well.........

Tonight's game turned at the end of the first half. Up by six, with the ball, and we turn it over (for the second time) trying to inbound from in front of the FSU bench. Kid hits a three, his first basket, and ignites like the Human Torch. Nolte and Wilkins turn easy shots into hard shots, missing both, late in the game when we must score. I have to say I am really concerned for the season given what I saw tonight. Plenty of time and ample opportunity to turn it around but I am not seeing the pep in our step to give me much hope.
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FSU Game Thoughts

I hate our offense right now. Not much movement and teams continue to pack it in daring us to make outside shots.

Salt looks quicker than he did early in the year. Good job hedging early in the game.

FSU switching a lot in the half court early.

Glad Hall got his first start. Kid has waited his turn and kept working hard until his playing time could increase.

Why do we keep playing Nolte? If he could hit 1 or 2 3's a game, that is one thing, but the kid has lost all confidence in his shot.

FSU was spreading the floor with 4 guards early and TB saw that and subbed in pretty quickly.

MB has sucked from 3. His shot is still flat and we thought that was fixed over the summer.

LP is passing up good shots. His scoring is needed night in and night out. Kid needs to shoot 10-15 shots a game.

Is TB trying to find defense so bad he is failing to realize this team is money when getting out in transition offense?

Gill has to stop picking up dumb fouls. We can't afford him on the bench for long stretches as the season gets going.

SLOB was a issue early in the game. How could we not get the ball in? These are things you don't see from a TB team.

Why does Salt get minutes if he just is a guy who is using 5 fouls? JR is a better scoring option.

Once again this offense has no ball movement or screens to get guys open. This game in the second half turned into one on one basketball again.

We don't have the quard quickness we need. Why not DT and DH when we need guys to slash which will open up drive and kick?

This team might be better served running the offense through LP. His shot is the most consistent on this team right now.

This team is sloppy. MB is forcing dumb shots and as I have said for weeks, the offensive movement sucks which leads to one on one basketball too much.

We need quicker guards. Coleman might be a must in 17. We are slow and getting split by every team with quick guards.

This team has a true identity crisis and it's going to take some team leadership to clean up.

Tony really needs to just settle in the lineup and go with it because the tinkering isn't working either. I know his identity is a defensive minded coach, but this team has shown this season that they're better when they can get out in transition and start an early offense before the other team sets their defense because we are severely lacking a knockdown shooter that can bury teams.

This is a 7-10 seed come tourney time that will need the right matchup and shooting to even think about making the Sweet 16.

This is the most frustrated I've been in the Tony Bennett era.

The offense needs to run through Gill and LP. Next two games are must wins in the worst way. Sad we have to say that this early in the year.
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As Malcolm goes UVA wins or loses

We all love Malcolm but in our 3 ACC losses he has taken 48 shots making only 16. Thompson is afraid to shoot, Tobey is a defensive liability and Gill sometimes gets overmatched by opponents 7 footers. Shayok in a sophmore slump or still injured. Hall inconsistant and poor Nolte barely shooting 20%, we all cringe when he shoots (as does he). Wilkins hustles but is undersized for a 4 and struggles to do his job with also having to compensate for others not doing theirs. Perrantes is doing a great job from 3 but the offense is too dependent on Malcolm and when he is slumping our offense is hurting. He is about 40% of our offense and when he is misfiring we are in big trouble. He is forced to keep shooting and sometimes it is down right ugly, he is not the pure shooter Joe was or the athlete Justin was. We desperately need to develop another consistant weapon, we can't keep putting the pressure all on Malcolm. He also leads the team in TO's, again because he is trying to do too much because rarely are others doing their share. Next year we will have a pure shooter, maybe 2, a slasher with range, a defender and a great low post scorer/threat but this year too much is being asked of Malcom and he can't consistantly come through.

Something we haven't seen the past two seasons

You know how in Joe's freshman season you knew he was going to be pretty good? Then Malcolm? Then London? Gill in his first year here? Well, we haven't seen any freshman last year or this year look like that and the sophomores continue to not take that serious step.

Two thoughts.

When the posters saying and predicting that Shayok would be a star and make that leap, I never understood it. I don't think he ever is going to be a consistent contributor. His game is wild and reckless ( his shot too) and his dribble is worse than Justin's.

Also, I think in the limited time he has gotten, Reuter comes closest to being like the aforementioned players as far as looking like he could be a consistent contributor down the road. I have no idea why this guy doesn't get in the game more especially when you need offense down low.
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