Hi all-I figured I'd drop some thoughts I'm having this morning as we all try to process the 2023 season and the horrible way in which it ended.
The Loss to VT
Yesterday's loss was embarrasing, and really demonstrated that while UVa did a good job hanging tough in some games, they're not exactly close to turning the corner. If UVa had won this game, you could really debate whether UVa or Tech had more momentum heading into the offseason. VT played an easier schedule and if they lost yesterday, they would've been 5-7 with a loss to their biggest rival, another year without a bowl and questions about how much progress they made this year. And for UVa, they would've been 4-8 against a much more difficult schedule, with wins over their two biggest rivals, and perhaps a little more excitement going into the offseason, and into Elliott's third year.
Obviously, that didn't happen, and the gap between UVa and VT grew a bit wider. UVa probably had the better team in the Commonwealth Cup in three of the last four meetings, if not all four of them. In this game, it was pretty obvious that VT is further along in all three phases, as well as in getting the team motivated to play the game. UVa's rough 2+ decade run against VT now stretches through three Tech coaches, and five at Virginia. And no matter who is in charge, Tech seems to be able to get up for this game, and play better. Granted, more often than not, they've had the better roster. And they have a better homefield advantage by a significant margin, which contributes to UVa's 25+ year drought without a win in Blacksburg. Still, UVa came out totally flat on Saturday and treated it like "just another game" and they paid the price for that mentality.
Now, VT can take this win and more momentum into the offseason. They get the extra bowl practices and can feel good about their long-term solution at QB, and they're recruiting at a much higher level than UVa right now. It was a missed opportunity for UVa, and in the process, props up their rival for the offseason. It was a really disheartening effort from the Hoos, and something that will linger into the offseason to be sure.
The 2023 Season
3-9 (2-6 ACC) isn't good, but it's about what we, along with the outside world, expected. In our preseason predictions podcast, I had UVa 4-8 with wins over JMU, W&M, BC and GT. Dave and Brad each picked 5-7, so none of us were exactly optimistic. This was a strange season in many ways, perhaps in part shadowed by what happened at the end of last season, particularly as this season began. For UVa, it felt like a season of missed opportunities, and of reality checks. UVa lost 9 games. Seven of 12 games were decided by one score, six by a field goal or less. Virginia went 2-5 in those games, despite leading all in all of them, leading in all but one of them in the 4th quarter, and leading four of them by double digits (1-3 record) at some point in the game. If UVa went 5-2 in those games instead of 2-5, it's a different season.
But obviously, some rough 4th quarters doomed the Hoos in those games. UVa was outscored 114-54 (average score of 9.5-4.5) in the 4th quarter, and 6-3 in OT. In those seven games decided by a score, UVa was outscored by a total of 59-30 in the fourth quarter. It's also worth noting, that for whatever reason, UVa started games well, winning the first quarter 66-64, and did okay in the third quarter (losing 107-99), but got obliterated in the 2nd and 4th quarters (228-111). Perhaps that speaks to stamina, or adjustments, or both.
But let's also be honest, while UVa had a bunch of close games, they also were outclassed in several games. UVa lost to Tennessee, Maryland, Georgia Tech and Virginia Tech by an average score of 47.8 to 15.3. And while those teams are not terrible, it's not exactly a murderer's row, either. Taking out the wins over UVa, those four teams combined to go 23-21. Wins over UVa made both GT and VT bowl eligible. In all of those losses, UVa either started off poorly or had a bad second half, or both. Tennessee basically dominated from start to finish, and led 35-3 before the Cavaliers scored a touchdown. Maryland blanked UVa over the final three quarters of the game after UVa started the game up 14-0. Georgia Tech outscored the Hoos 28-3 over the middle two quarters. And the Hokies shut UVa out in the first half, 24-0. In between close, disappointing losses, UVa also had a bunch of clunkers like this one, too.
UVa did have to deal with quite a bit of adversity throughout the season, with lots of injuries throughout the fall. The biggest was to QB Tony Muskett, who missed a good portion of the season. Freshman Anthony Colandrea was a bright spot in 2023, despite a 1-5 record as a starter. The defense forced a lot of younger players into action, and that experience may pay off for them down the road. The Cavaliers also played a relatively tough schedule, with all 11 of their FBS opponents bowl eligible.
The highlight of the season was inarguably the win at UNC, which was the program's first over a AP top-10 team on the road. The impressiveness of that win has faded some though, as the then 6-0 Tar Heels limped to an 8-4 finish, with one of their two late wins coming against Campbell. The lowlight was the VT game, though there were some tough moments from the beginning of the season til the end.
It was a tough season, as most expected. UVa had a chance to end it on a high note and perhaps negate their 8 losses this season with a win over the Hokies, but went completely the other way and stumbled into the offseason.
It's "Show Me" time for Tony Elliott and his staff.
We said when Tony Elliott was hired that he had a great opportunity to start fast at Virginia in year one, as the next couple could be tough given the roster, and schedules. They weren't able to take advantage of the amount of skill talent they returned, or a schedule that looked manageable, and went 3-7 before the season was prematurely cut short. Obviously everything that happened after that couldn't have been foreseen, and it's not fair to expect this staff to be able to overcome all that happened and put together a miraculous second season.
But if there was a honeymoon period for this staff, and frankly I don't know that they ever really had one with the fanbase (which is unfair I'd say but it is what it is), it's over now. Saturday's blowout loss to Virginia Tech won't sit well with the fanbase, many of whom are already either not happy with the on-field product or completely checked out. UVa's 3-9 season had some flashes of hope for the future, but now the staff will have to fight to keep some of their promising youngsters out of the transfer portal, as opportunities will certainly emerge elsewhere.
Putting aside the tragedy last November, and maybe that's impossible to do, the program has not had much momentum. Outside of a few solid gets out of the transfer portal last year, and an incredible find in Malik Washington, there hasn't been a ton of recruiting momentum. Getting Kam Robinson was a good win for the staff, especially if they can hang onto him, and under-the-radar finds like Colandrea and Dre Walker are signs that maybe this staff can identify talent. But they also need to have more success in-state and land higher caliber players here and there, while they also try to build depth across the roster. The staff's success or failure in the portal this offseason may make or break their time in Charlottesville, too.
On the field, it's been one step forward and two steps back. Penalties have been a consistent problem, as have turnovers, lack of good line play on both sides of the ball, and special teams. The team has hung tough in some games, but in others, particularly at home, they've had some no-shows. Elliott's in-game management hasn't been as bad as other coaches I've seen, but it doesn't feel like a particular strength, either.
I will also add that I feel like Elliott showed more maturity this season, and seemed more in control of the sideline, and didn't put as much blame on the players to the media. So perhaps there were some lessons learned for a head coach that still has just 22 games under his belt.
We'll see if Elliott makes any staff changes this offseason, and all eyes will be on special teams after a horrible season. John Rudzinski had a very solid 2022 but didn't follow up on it with a very good 2023, and the defense was downright terrible at times. Granted, injuries were a factor, but even when the Hoos were somewhat healthy, they often struggled to create negative plays, got almost no pressure on the QB, and gave up too many big plays and red zone scores to opponents. On offense, Des Kitchings had a lot of pressure coming into this season, and the offense was clearly better, though it still wasn't very good. Perhaps the upward momentum buys him more time, but we'll see. I don't expect coordinator changes necessarily, unless one of the two leaves voluntarily, and I doubt they have offers coming in left and right given how this season went.
I think it's fair to put Tony Elliott on the hot seat for 2024. Coaches are rarely fired after two years or less, and obviously UVa has some unique circumstances at play given everything that happened last year. Still, Elliott is just 6-16 at Virginia. He didn't inherit a disaster necessarily either, as Bronco Mendenhall had UVa bowl eligible five years in a row prior to Elliott's arrival. Elliott is also just 4-8 overall, 2-8 vs FBS and 1-7 vs ACC at home, which is simply not going to be good enough going forward. And to top all of that, he has an embarrassing home loss to a very average (though improving) Virginia Tech team, and is clearly behind the eight-ball in the fight for the Commonwealth, both on and off the field.
There aren't a ton of examples lately of coaches who really struggled in the first two years, and then turned it around in year three and had a long stay at a school. I made a list earlier in the season:
-Dino Babers (Syracuse): 4-8, 4-8; Went 10-3 in Year 3, got 8 years before getting canned this season
-Dave Clawson (Wake): 3-9, 3-9; Went 7-6 in Year 3 and got things rolling
-Mike Norvell (FSU): 3-6 (Covid), 5-7; Went 10-3 in Year 3, and now 12-0 in Year 4
-Tom Allen (Indiana): 5-7, 5-7; 8-5 in year 3; Just got fired today after 7 years of mediocrity
-Jonathan Smith (Oregon State): 2-10, 5-7, 2-5; 7-6 in Year 4 (got extra time because of COVID, and OSU was a dumpster fire when he got there), now at Michigan State
-Mark Stoops (Kentucky): 2-10, 5-7, 5-7; 7-6 in Year 4; Has made UK very respectable since
-David Cutcliffe (Duke): 4-8, 5-7, 3-9, 3-9; 6-7 in Year 5 (Duke was the worst P5 program then, so he had a long runway)
There are a few other examples (Harbaugh at Stanford, Greg Schiano the first time at Rutgers, Locksley went 2-3 in Year 2 at UMD) but that's basically it. Tony Elliott will probably need to add his name to this list in 2024, because it's going to be a very hard sell to give him a fourth year if they have another losing season next year. The easiest path for Elliott is to improve his record at home, turn some of these close losses into close wins, and find a way to scratch out a 3-1 non-conference record (Richmond, Maryland, at Coastal Carolina, at ND) to give himself a fighting chance.
The administration should feel some pressure, too.
While the coaching staff will feel much of the ire from the fanbase after Saturday's loss and another losing season, they shouldn't be alone.
While Elliott & company need to improve the on-field product and win some games, his bosses need to do a better job giving him a better chance to get that done. UVa's lack of success on the recruiting trail is not necessarily totally on the staff, or an accident. Neither is their lack of success at Scott Stadium. Organizations get the results out based on the efforts and resources poured in. UVa's administration is trying to help UVa improve the program's footing within the ACC, and put them on a level playing field. The football ops center is a big step in the right direction. But there's a lot more work to be done.
Virginia's crowd of 42,976 was their lowest for a home game against VT since stadium expansion a quarter century ago. And that number includes a good number of Hokies (maybe 10K?), so UVa had a fan turnout of maybe 33,000 or so, maybe less. That speaks volumes to the energy around the program or lack thereof. Now, the administration could make the tickets free and I still don't think they'd have anything close to a sellout, and that's on the fanbase as much as it is on the administration. Thousands of UVa fans have seemingly punted on the football program, deciding that the ROI for traveling to Charlottesville and supporting the players just isn't there. And given how Saturday's game went, they may be right.
With all that said, UVa employs a lot of people, including the athletic director, whose job it is to drum up support and get butts in seats. Whatever they've tried, it's not working very well. If UVa was winning, obviously, more people would show up. But even when they were doing better, like in 2019 when both UVa and VT entered the Commonwealth Cup 8-3 and playing for the division title, the total attendance was 52,619, with probably 10-15k Hokies in the building. So clearly there's more keeping fans away than simply wins and losses. Frankly I don't know what UVa's admin can do to get fans back, but that's why they get paid the big bucks to make those decisions, and I don't. I would say that making tickets to Saturday's game only available to VAF donors and season ticket holders proved foolish. Surely it kept some UVa fans from being able to buy tickets, or make a last minute decision to attend, and it certainly didn't keep the Hokies from getting in. So maybe the admin needs to stop worrying about a Hokie invasion, and spend their time focused on making the product more accessible and attractive to their own fans.
I would also like to shout out the 30,000 or so UVa fans that always make their way to Scott Stadium. UVa doesn't have the biggest fanbase, but they do have some truly loyal fans that keep giving it a go week in and week out, and UVa should do whatever they can to keep those people happy and make them feel valued, perhaps even over donors who may give money, but don't find the trip to Charlottesville on gameday worth their time, even if they have a parking spot a few feet from the stadium gate.
The scheduling this season was pretty foolish, too. UVa is required to play a P5 game out of conference, and they'd had one scheduled with Maryland for years. Then, they added a virtual road game with a good Tennessee team to that, on top of having the bad fortune of drawing an 11-1 JMU team. Next year is weird too, once again with just six home games, playing both Notre Dame AND Coastal Carolina on the road, on top of a return game with the Terps. This type of scheduling isn't driving fans to Scott Stadium, and its also keeping the program from racking up easier non-con wins and having a better shot at a bowl game.
The administration will certainly have to figure out a long-term plan for NIL, something they're surely working on, but UVa is still behind some of their counterparts. I'd also like to say here that while UVa has unique circumstances as a University, they are not the only school that does. And many of their contemporaries are winning games anyway. See: Duke, Tulane, Georgia Tech, etc. Those schools aren't swimming in NIL money. And many other schools value academics, and that both enriches the student athlete's college experience, but also gives them more to do during the week. You can be a school that wants its athletes to get a quality education AND win football games. It can be done, it has been done, and it will continue to be done.
Maybe the admin needs to work with the academic side to make it easier for players to transfer in and recognize that the world is changing. But its time for UVa to either decide to give it a go with football, or cash in their chips. Because if you look at the stands on Saturday afternoon, it feels like a lot of fans have done the latter and that's a problem that will only get bigger. If the fans don't feel the school or the athletic department care about making things better, then why should they invest their time or dollars? Especially as schools are desperately asking fans to pony up cash for NIL, those fans need to see the return on investment, and that starts with good messaging and resources from the administration.
Tony Elliott's success or failure should fall on the admin, too. This was their guy. I actually liked the hire when it was made, and on paper, Elliott made a lot of sense for UVa. Still, it is the administration's job to vet and evaluate candidates, and pick the ones that are going to work out. Just like coaches are evaluated on wins and losses, athletic directors should be held responsible for the successes or failures of their direct reports, particularly the ones they hired. It's also on the administration to give those coaches what they need (within reason) to be successful at the school. UVa got the funding for the football facility on the day Elliott was hired, and obviously that was a big commitment. But now, Carla Williams will need to figure out what needs to be done to get UVa football back to winning. That's a big reason she was hired at Virginia in the first place, and outside of the football ops center, which is a big win, it's hard to say anything else with the football program is better off than it was when she was hired.
And if Elliott does fail to turn it around, Williams will have to take most of the blame for that. She botched her first women's basketball hire, and has seemingly made a good choice on the rebound. Whiffing this hard on a football hire, particularly when there was some pressure to hire a different coach, is a much bigger miss, and if Williams has to make the next hire, it needs to be a good one.
Offseason To-Do List
- Recruit the Locker Room-UVa has some young talent, and they need to keep as many of those guys out of the transfer portal as possible. UVa's success in 2024 will likely come from transfers in, and not letting transfers get out.
- Close the 2024 class as strong as possible, and get to work on 2025- UVa needs recruiting momentum, and after a 3-9 season on the field, the staff will have to work hard to convince players that the turnaround is coming next year.
- Strike in the portal, and add depth there- UVa needs help in all three phases from the portal. The good news may be that they have some QB options, and don't need to go portaling for that. And hopefully they can retain as much of the OL as possible as all players can return. There almost a 0% chance UVa hits as big in the portal as they did with Malik Washington, but they'll have to find another receiver to replace most of his production, as I don't see how UVa's offense can be better if it's counting on the returnees alone. Virginia is going to need some help in the front seven on defense, too.
- Capitalize on the new football ops center- This goes back to recruiting, but hopefully UVa can get some good recruits in the building to see first hand that the University and the athletic department are making investments in the football program.
- Focus on stamina and creating big plays on both sides of the ball during spring practice and fall camp- UVa is going to need to flip their W/L record in close games next year if they're going to have a winning season. UVa's staff will need to do whatever they can to drive consistency and competitive stamina in various game situations, and motivate the players to finish strong, and bring consistent effort to all 12 games.
- Do whatever possible on the NIL front-We discussed that above, but UVa has a lot of work to do in recruiting infrastructure, so this offseason will be big for getting investments in the right places, and using that to get recruits to consider Virginia.
- Do whatever possible to get investment from the fanbase-Easier said than done, but the administration has to find a way to get people back on board. That means investing money, coming to games, staying through the end of the game, and simply talking about UVa on social media and trying to create a buzz.
Big Picture Prediction
Like I said above, I really liked the Elliott hire two years ago. I thought he was about as good as UVa could do at the time, and thought he might be successful in getting more juice around the program, and getting more talent in.
Unfortunately, things have just not gone well. It's been a tough year for everyone around UVa football, and I think its fair to consider what the program has been through off the field. Still, I don't see a ton right now that leads me to believe that things are about to turn around. If UVa had come out and played well yesterday, even in a loss, maybe it would be easier to look on the bright side. But I have serious questions around the overall football operation, from recruiting, to game management, to motivation, and frankly, about the passion for UVa.
It might not be fair to compare everything to Virginia Tech, but given their coach is a first-time head coach in his second year, there are some direct comparisons to be made. And everything about Virginia Tech's program seems better right now. They have more passion and excitement about what they're doing, they're improving on the field, and their coaching staff seems invested in long-term success there. At UVa, it feels like everyone is going through the motions, and that leads you to 55-17 losses to your rival in a 60% full stadium, two home wins over FBS opponents in two years, and a recruiting class currently ranked 58th nationally.
Maybe Elliott pushes the right buttons next year and everything falls into place. The offseason is just getting started, but right now, I'd say the ceiling for the 2024 UVa team is probably 6-6 or 7-5 if everything breaks right (playing six road games is not great, especially when they include trips to VT, Clemson and ND). But I feel confident saying that UVa will again be picked at or near the bottom of the league and will be expected to win 3 or 4 games.
If that happens, UVa has to make changes, and I think they would. It would demonstrate no signs of progress, and there would be very little hope for a sudden turnaround in Year 4. If Elliott gets UVa back to a bowl game, he's probably good to go for now, and perhaps he can turn things around over the long haul. But from where I'm sitting, I'd bet on UVa being in the market for a coach in a year or two, barring a big swing in the right direction.
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